RiskReversal Pod David Rosenberg on Market Uncertainty, Trade Wars and Stagflation Risks
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Mar 21, 2025 
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, shares his expert insights on today’s economic climate. He discusses the Federal Reserve's latest policy shifts, the risks of stagflation, and the lingering effects of trade wars on consumer behavior. Rosenberg also examines historical parallels that could predict recession outcomes, along with the impact of tariffs and fiscal policies. He offers a critical look at the equity market and inflation trends, leaving listeners with valuable perspectives on investment strategies in these uncertain times.
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Fed Projections
- The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP growth forecast by 0.5% over the next two years.
- They also raised their core inflation forecast slightly, but project it to decrease next year.
Unemployment and Recession
- The Fed's unemployment rate forecast increased, signaling a potential recession.
- Historically, a 100 basis point rise in unemployment has always led to a recession.
Stagflation Debate
- David Rosenberg disagrees with the idea of current stagflation, citing low inflation compared to the 1970s.
- He emphasizes that stagflation is about rates of change, not price levels.