The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series The (Next) Gulf War Is Coming || Peter Zeihan
Oct 22, 2024
Tensions are rising in the Middle East, sparking fears of a new oil crisis. The discussion covers a potential military invasion for oil resources and its global repercussions. Iran and Saudi Arabia's conflict could escalate, impacting energy exports and regional stability. Historical context frames the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing U.S. interests, especially amid the Ukraine conflict. The implications for the global oil supply and prices are critically examined, highlighting the interests of major players like China.
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Potential Oil Crash Due to Middle East Conflict
- Peter Zeihan discusses the potential for an oil crash due to conflict in the Middle East, a topic he hasn't previously focused on.
- He predicted this scenario in his book but didn't discuss it much because the circumstances weren't relevant until recently.
Israel's Potential Retaliation and its Consequences
- Israel's potential retaliation against Iran's oil sector, specifically the Karg Island infrastructure, could trigger further conflict.
- This could lead to Iran attacking Saudi Arabia, escalating the situation and significantly impacting global oil supply.
Potential Conflict Scenarios and Oil Price Impact
- Iran might invade Saudi Arabia through Iraq and Kuwait, targeting oil fields, or use missiles to attack Saudi oil facilities.
- This conflict could disrupt up to 20 million barrels of oil per day, potentially driving prices above $300.