Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, dives into the cutting-edge world of AI and its seismic impact on markets. He highlights NVIDIA's recent earnings and the transformative potential of AI, likening it to past innovations like electricity. The conversation also touches on the shift from hardware to software, anticipated growth in consumer tech, and how these advancements are reshaping investment strategies. Additionally, Munster reflects humorously on job security amidst automation in the asset management sector.
The podcast highlights the continuous trading opportunities in the futures market, allowing investors to react swiftly to price movements at any time.
A reevaluation of investment strategies is necessary due to the ineffectiveness of the traditional 60-40 portfolio amid rising inflation pressures.
Deep dives
Trading in the Futures Market
The futures market operates nearly 24 hours a day, providing significant liquidity and trading opportunities even when other markets have slowed down. Unlike ETF markets, which experience reduced volume after 4 p.m., futures allow traders to make transactions at any hour. This continuous trading environment means that investors can take advantage of price movements at any time, making futures an attractive option for many market participants. The flexibility to trade around the clock can help investors capitalize on unexpected market events.
Asset Allocation Strategies Ahead
Equities have been upgraded recently, with confidence in the macroeconomic outlook remaining strong despite electoral uncertainties. The distinction in expected values remained unchanged, although the variance in potential outcomes has increased, prompting some revisions in recommended asset positions. For example, gold, which had been pulling back, is now viewed as more attractive in this context, aligning with a broader positive sentiment towards equities, particularly financials, expected to benefit from regulatory changes. The core thesis for investment strategies has remained steady despite the fluctuations.
The Evolving 60-40 Portfolio
The traditional 60-40 portfolio, which balanced stocks and bonds, is no longer as effective due to changing correlations influenced by inflation worries. When inflation is contained, stocks and bonds typically show negative correlation, but in recent times, both can lose value simultaneously, necessitating diversification into alternative asset classes. This shift calls for a reevaluation of investment strategies, suggesting a move toward a 40-30-30 model, incorporating alternatives to mitigate risks. As portfolio construction becomes more complex, the importance of diversification to counter inflation pressures has grown.
The Future of IPOs and Market Dynamics
The podcast discusses the current landscape for initial public offerings (IPOs), suggesting that while bubbly activity was seen during the SPAC craze, the environment has stabilized with increased regulatory measures. Although IPO enthusiasm has diminished compared to the rampant exuberance of previous years, recent high-profile listings show signs of a tempered market rather than a complete downturn. Companies now face more scrutiny when going public, which affects both the number and manner of the offerings. The outlook for IPOs remains cautious, with anticipation for a more moderate rhythm of public registrations moving forward.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyNovember 21st, 2024 What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey. (https://bit.ly/4eIFhe5) Featuring:
Jason Draho, Head: Americas Tactical Asset Allocation at UBS Financial Services, talks benign US growth and policy risks to markets in the coming Trump admin
Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, discusses the latest DC headlines, the Trump transition, and the war in Ukraine
Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, on Nvidia earnings and the outlook for AI