Manifold

Polygenics and Machine SuperIntelligence; Billionaires, Philo-semitism, and Chosen Embryos – #102

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Jan 1, 2026
Explore groundbreaking advancements in polygenic embryo screening that could reshape healthcare and attitudes toward intelligence traits. The discussion dives into how elite demand and shifting perceptions are driving innovation in IVF technologies. Transitioning to AI, listeners learn about significant progress in research capabilities, including breakthroughs in physics and enhanced model performance through innovative methods. Predictions for 2026 suggest an exciting future for both genomics and artificial intelligence.
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ANECDOTE

Billionaire IVF Example

  • Steve Hsu recounts a Wall Street Journal profile of a wealthy Chinese man reportedly fathering many children via IVF and surrogacy.
  • Hsu notes the man preferred eggs from Jewish women and suggests elite reproduction may use donor eggs and polygenic selection.
INSIGHT

Polygenic Scores Validated In Clinical Study

  • Large clinical studies now allocate screening based on polygenic risk scores and show meaningful differentiation in outcomes.
  • Hsu argues polygenic prediction is validated and ready for integration into adult healthcare.
INSIGHT

Ancestry-Gap Closed For Polygenic Scores

  • A Nature 2025 paper built high-quality, population-specific polygenic predictors for Han Chinese by aggregating over half a million genomes.
  • This closes an ancestry gap and enables strong predictors for disease and traits in East Asian populations.
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