Peter St Onge Podcast Ep 144 Weekly Roundup: Biggest Budget Surplus in History
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Oct 27, 2025 Dive into a record-setting $198 billion budget surplus and the role of tariff revenues. Explore how GOP redistricting could shift up to 20 House seats in the midterms. Hear about the potential end of the government shutdown and strategies for Republicans. Discover how Trump's tariffs are affecting Jeep investments in Ontario. Unpack the alarming crash of regional bank stocks tied to loan fraud and the risks in commercial real estate. A whirlwind of economic insights awaits!
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Record September Surplus Is Largely Temporary
- Treasury recorded a record $198 billion September surplus driven by tariff revenue and one-time spending shifts.
- The surplus is partly temporary and won't sustain without structural deficit reduction.
Entitlements And Interest Drive Deficits
- Mandatory entitlement spending and debt interest dominate the budget, leaving little room for discretionary cuts.
- Without cutting mandatory programs, the $1.8 trillion deficit remains a structural problem.
Redistricting Could Swing The Midterms
- Republican redistricting in red states could flip up to 20 House seats and alter midterm outcomes.
- Removing Democratic gerrymanders may permanently shift House control dynamics in future cycles.