Intelligence Squared The War in Ukraine: How Does it End? - Part 2
May 21, 2023
Orlando Figes, a noted historian of Russian history, shares insights on the intricate dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. He emphasizes the vital role of a united Western alliance and the U.S. influence in securing support for Ukraine. Figes discusses the complexities surrounding sanctions on Russia and the importance of negotiating in favor of Ukrainian interests. The conversation also touches on the moral responsibilities of democratic nations and critiques European security guarantees. It's a thought-provoking exploration of potential pathways to peace.
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Western Support for Ukraine
- The US government remains committed to supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammunition.
- European nations are increasing ammunition production and providing tanks, defying initial reluctance.
European Commitment to Ukraine
- European solidarity with Ukraine is stronger than predicted, but definitions of "winning" vary among nations.
- There's a commitment in Europe to prevent Ukraine from losing, but not necessarily for them to achieve absolute victory.
Impact of China and Regime Change
- China's involvement in the war will likely increase ammunition and supplies to Russia, enabling prolonged fighting.
- A Ukrainian victory depends on the fall of the Putin regime, which could take a long time, similar to Russia's experience in World War I and the Afghan War.