NATE FISCHER: The Macro Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World
Sep 30, 2024
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Nate Fischer, founder and CEO of New Founding, dives into macro investing and the economic trends shaping our future. He discusses the importance of investing against the grain in distressed real estate and the impact of political turmoil during the Trump era. Fischer highlights financial system fragility and calls for urgent changes. He critiques conventional leadership models, advocating for real-world experience. The conversation also covers innovative insurance solutions and the creation of values-aligned communities to drive social and economic change.
Nate Fischer emphasizes the significance of macro investing, which utilizes broad economic trends to create diverse investment strategies across various markets.
The podcast highlights the increasing socio-political divisiveness in the U.S., leading to alienation from institutions and a demand for new community-based alternatives.
The concept of 'exit to disrupt' advocates for the departure from traditional organizations to innovate and challenge the status quo effectively.
Deep dives
Understanding Macro Investing
Macro investing involves creating investment strategies based on wide-scale economic trends and shifts that can influence various markets. Unlike value investors, who focus on the intrinsic value of individual assets, macro investors assess how global and national changes may create opportunities across different sectors. For instance, a macro investor may recognize a trend in a tech sector innovation or geopolitical shifts that signify a ripple effect on financial markets. This perspective allows macro investors to identify diverse opportunities rather than being limited to traditional asset evaluations.
Learning from Past Investments
A personal narrative illustrates the utilization of a macro thesis in investment decisions, particularly during the post-financial crisis period focusing on distressed real estate markets in Florida and Texas. By purchasing undervalued properties marked by high vacancy rates, the strategy hinged on the belief that population trends and economic conditions would eventually restore value, which the investor realized after a few years. The experience demonstrated that despite lacking profound real estate expertise, a strong macro thesis provided a safety net in investment decisions, resulting in significant returns. This reflects how understanding broader market principles can outweigh specific asset knowledge in achieving investment success.
Dynamic Forces Reshaping America
The current socio-political landscape of the United States is characterized by growing divisiveness, with a perceived divergence between traditional American values and those endorsed by contemporary elites. This tension suggests an increasing alienation of vast demographic segments, leading to a worrying decline in trust towards existing institutions. Key factors driving this transformation include the rise of digital platforms that amplify political polarization and the sporadic efficacy of large bureaucratic entities. These interconnected elements suggest that the foundational stability of the nation is being challenged, opening the door for new organizational alternatives and community formations.
Emerging Disruptive Trends Amidst Bureaucracy
The podcast discusses significant disruptions currently facing large bureaucratic organizations, interpreting them as less effective in the face of technological advancements and evolving societal expectations. Notable examples such as Boeing's recent challenges demonstrate a growing perception that traditional models of operation are faltering, which is increasingly leading to a demand for innovative approaches. Additionally, the need for credibility is shifting from formal qualifications towards discernible 'skin in the game,' indicating that practical experience and a displayed commitment could be more reliable indicators of competence. This suggests a potential reshaping of professional landscapes where adaptability and entrepreneurial spirit overshadow conventional bureaucratic credentials.
Strategizing for Change Through Exit
The concept of 'exit to disrupt' emphasizes the importance of leaving established institutions to establish alternative models that challenge the status quo. Unlike defensive retreats that create inferior alternatives, this strategy advocates for building new, innovative organizations that can effectively compete against conventional systems. It encourages a mindset focused on winning in diverse fields by leveraging dissatisfaction not just for escape, but for purposeful disruption. Overall, this approach champions the necessity for motivated individuals to engage actively in forming the future socio-economic landscape, aligning their values and visions with community-building initiatives.
Nate Fischer, Founder and CEO of New Founding, joins us to talk about his firm's investment strategy, and particularly the macro forces that will be shaping the society and economy of tomorrow.
