Deep Dish on Global Affairs Trump’s Tariffs: Can Global Trade Survive the Shock?
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Aug 7, 2025 
Brent Neiman, an economics professor at the University of Chicago and former Treasury counselor, and David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, dive into the ripple effects of Trump's tariffs on global trade. They discuss the uncertain landscape for businesses and international relations amid rising tariffs. The conversation reveals the UK's strategic responses and contrasts them with the EU's varied reactions. Neiman and Henig also explore manufacturing's role in national security and the challenges faced by countries adjusting to new trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for coordinated strategies.
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Unprecedented Scale and Uncertainty
- Trump's tariffs are unprecedented in scale, process, justification, and goals compared to past trade policies.
- These tariffs create significant uncertainty due to high levels, exceptions, and unpredictability.
Opaque US Trade Decision Making
- US trade policy under Trump is opaque with unclear decision makers and unpredictable goals.
- This confusion complicates negotiations and international trade relationships significantly.
Research Misused to Set Tariffs
- Brent Neiman's research was cited but misapplied to justify tariffs far higher than his data suggested.
- For example, tariffs on Japan were 46% but his data would suggest about 12-13%.