The DSR Network FTA: Watching and Waiting: Israel, Iran, War and Ceasefire
Sep 27, 2025
Aaron David Miller, a seasoned U.S. State Department analyst, and Barbara Slavin, an expert on Iran and Middle East policy, dissect the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. They explore the implications of a potential Iranian retaliation and speculate on the outcomes of ongoing Doha ceasefire talks. Miller highlights U.S. leverage over Israel, while Slavin discusses the intricate dynamics of U.S. politics influencing Israeli decisions. Both provide intriguing predictions on the likelihood of a ceasefire or military action in the near future.
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Ceasefire Could Avert Iranian Retaliation
- Iran may refrain from military retaliation if a Gaza ceasefire is achieved because it would accept that as a political win.
- The US deployment of defensive assets reduces Iran's incentive to launch a large-scale strike now.
High Stakes And Misaligned Timetables
- Iran wants to avoid triggering a massive Israeli response or dragging the US into a wider war.
- The outcome hinges on difficult negotiations in Doha and misaligned clocks among key Palestinian and Israeli decision-makers.
Phased Ceasefire Is The Realistic Best-Case
- Achieving a full, durable end state is unlikely because Palestinian and Israeli endgames are irreconcilable.
- A limited, phased six-week ceasefire with hostage returns and humanitarian surges is the realistic best-case.
