Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado Why North Korea Is Planning a Second Korean War and How to Stop It
Jan 29, 2025
Dmitri Alperovitch hosts Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert and professor, alongside Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian. They discuss the dire threats from North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the potential for a second Korean War. The conversation covers the intricacies of North Korea's relationships with China and Russia, revealing China's growing frustrations. Lankov shares insights on life under the regime, including the extensive surveillance, the realities of prison camps, and the surprising role of technology and female empowerment in this repressive society.
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Exploiting Weaknesses in the Axis
- North Korea's alliance with China and Russia isn't as strong as perceived, stemming from historical tensions and differing interests.
- Exploiting these differences through continued engagement, like Trump's initial attempts, could weaken the so-called axis.
Arms Control, Not Denuclearization
- North Korea likely won't denuclearize, as it's their regime survival guarantee.
- However, an arms control deal might be possible, but at a higher price for the U.S. than in 2019, including lifting sanctions and recognition.
Shifting Narratives and National Identity
- Kim Jong-un's recent labeling of South Korea as the "principal enemy" aims to reduce South Korean influence on North Korean society.
- This shift also reflects North Korea's long-term goal of creating a distinct national identity separate from South Korea.
