Why North Korea Is Planning a Second Korean War and How to Stop It
Jan 29, 2025
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Dmitri Alperovitch hosts Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert and professor, alongside Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian. They discuss the dire threats from North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the potential for a second Korean War. The conversation covers the intricacies of North Korea's relationships with China and Russia, revealing China's growing frustrations. Lankov shares insights on life under the regime, including the extensive surveillance, the realities of prison camps, and the surprising role of technology and female empowerment in this repressive society.
The ongoing tensions between North Korea and its allies, China and Russia, reveal a fragile alliance that the U.S. could leverage for peace talks.
North Korea's nuclear ambitions are seen as vital for regime survival, complicating the prospect of denuclearization and necessitating a shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy.
Life under North Korean surveillance highlights oppressive measures employed by the regime, which are justified through a narrative of external threats and national identity.
Deep dives
Prospects for Peace with North Korea
The potential for resuming peace talks with North Korea is highlighted, emphasizing the Trump administration's previous efforts to engage with the regime. The discussion reflects on the idea that the perceived strong alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia is actually fragile, particularly pointing out historical tensions between these nations. A key argument is that the U.S. should leverage these differences to re-engage North Korea, potentially leading to stability in the region. The piece suggests that by recognizing North Korea's security needs rather than focusing solely on denuclearization, meaningful diplomatic relations could be fostered.
Denuclearization: A Distant Goal
Denuclearization of North Korea is deemed unrealistic as the country views its nuclear arsenal as vital for regime survival, drawing parallels with historical examples like Libya and Iraq. North Korea's willingness to negotiate could hinge on the U.S. accepting them as a de facto nuclear state and lifting economic sanctions. The conversations indicate that any future agreements might require substantial concessions from the U.S., further complicating the negotiating landscape. In the absence of diplomacy, North Korea's nuclear capabilities are expected to expand, posing greater risks across the region.
Internal Dynamics and Ideological Shifts
Recent changes in North Korean ideology, especially the portrayal of South Korea as a principal enemy, reflect Kim Jong-un's attempt to solidify internal control and create a distinct national identity separate from the South. This ideological shift serves to justify the regime's oppressive measures while nurturing a narrative of victimhood against perceived external threats. Moreover, as public sentiment might be swayed by North Korea's military advancements, the regime's approach to South Korea may leverage this anti-South rhetoric to maintain power. The focus on fostering a unique North Korean identity indicates a long-term strategy for regime stability.
China's Frustration with North Korea
Chinese sentiments regarding North Korea reveal significant frustration, particularly concerning Pyongyang's growing ties with Russia, which China views as problematic. Conversations with Chinese counterparts indicate a strategic dilemma, where they feel entrapped by their alliance with both North Korea and Russia, often worried about increased instability in their region. China fears that North Korea's actions could lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia, ultimately undermining their influence in the region. This nuanced frustration illustrates the complex and often contradictory nature of Chinese foreign policy toward North Korea, balancing domestic concerns and strategic priorities.
North Korea's Cyber Capabilities and Global Operations
North Korea's hackers are noted for their innovative and proficient techniques, which are largely supported by a system that identifies and cultivates talent in STEM fields. Economic necessity drives many of these cyber operations, with hackers engaging in both espionage and criminal activities to support the regime financially. The podcast explains how these hackers often operate under false pretenses, sometimes pretending to be South Korean or Chinese in order to secure employment and generate income. This dual-purpose strategy showcases North Korea's resourcefulness in navigating global digital landscapes while simultaneously furthering its national interests.
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?
15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?
18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use
22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea
27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia
29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia
35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship
40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?
44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs
47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea
51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea
54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers
01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea
01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?
Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html
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