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EM Fixed Income: Goldilocks and the US election
Jul 18, 2024
Discussing the impacts of the US election on EM fixed income assets, analyzing market movements, regional impacts in Latin America and EMEA, and market reaction to the election. Exploring the application of valuation models, market uncertainties, and trading strategies amidst election ambiguity.
18:28
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Quick takeaways
- EM assets are not significantly pricing in US election risks, limited market response attributed to assessing Trump's impact.
- Monitoring US swap spreads helps gauge risk premiums in Treasuries, influencing EM asset performance post-US election.
Deep dives
Assessing EM Asset Prices Ahead of US Election
The discussion analyzes how emerging market (EM) assets are pricing in the upcoming US elections. It highlights that EM currencies have shown some risk premia, with Latin American currencies experiencing significant shifts unrelated to the US election. While EM rates markets have sold off versus US rates, credit markets have moved in line with historical betas. Valuation models reveal little deviation, suggesting EM assets are not significantly pricing in US election risks.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode