Under the Banyan Tree - If China's slowing, what's driving commodities?
Sep 14, 2023
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The podcast discusses the factors driving high commodity prices despite China's slowing growth, including supply constraints from under-investment in fossil fuels and agriculture. It also explores the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy, the impact of erratic weather on global agriculture, and the structural changes in commodity markets.
Commodity prices remain high despite China's slowing growth due to supply constraints caused by the energy transition, underinvestment in fossil fuel capacity, and the impact of climate change.
Oil prices are sustained at around $90 per barrel due to constrained supply from reduced investment in fossil fuel capacity and OPEC's disciplined reduction in supply, rather than demand factors.
Deep dives
Commodity Prices Remain High Despite China's Growth Slowdown
Despite China's economic growth slowing down to approximately 5%, commodity prices have remained resilient. Although commodity prices have come down from their peaks, they are still 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels. This can be attributed to supply constraints caused by the energy transition, underinvestment in fossil fuel capacity, and the impact of climate change. Global growth is expected to slow, but commodity prices are not expected to decrease sharply due to the limited supply relative to the demand for materials needed for the energy transition.
Oil Prices Remain Elevated Despite Global Industrial Production Slowdown
Oil prices have held up well despite a contraction in global industrial production and slowing global growth. The supply side of the oil market is constrained, with OPEC and OPEC+ members demonstrating discipline in reducing supply. Additionally, the energy transition has resulted in reduced investment in capacity for producing energy using fossil fuels. As a result, oil prices remain high, around $90 per barrel, due to constrained supply rather than demand factors.
Climate Change and Geopolitics Impact Agricultural Prices
The impact of climate change, including erratic weather patterns and extreme events, is affecting agricultural supply globally. Climate-related constraints, combined with geopolitical factors such as the Black Sea Initiative and restrictions on exports, have contributed to elevated agricultural prices. Rice prices have spiked, and agricultural commodities remain volatile as climate change and geopolitical constraints continue to squeeze supply. These factors suggest that agricultural prices may remain elevated and volatile in the medium term.