Conversations with Tyler George Selgin on the New Deal, Regime Uncertainty, and What Really Ended the Great Depression
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Oct 15, 2025 
George Selgin, an economist and monetary policy expert, dives into the complexities surrounding the New Deal and its actual impact on the Great Depression. He reveals the surprising lack of effective fiscal stimulus and critiques Roosevelt’s gold revaluation strategy. Selgin discusses the profound effects of regime uncertainty and how missteps in policy led to the 1937-38 recession. With a humorous twist, he also shares anecdotes about his life in Spain, including a fractional-reserve donkey ownership scheme that highlights his whimsical yet insightful approach to economics.
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New Deal Lacked True Stimulus
- The New Deal largely avoided modern fiscal and monetary stimulus despite appearances.
- That omission significantly shaped both its short-term gains and long-term limits.
Early Boom Was Not Durable
- Early New Deal growth reflected an NRA-driven inventory boom and bank stabilization rather than sustainable policy stimulus.
- The initial burst faded once price controls and regulatory uncertainty took hold.
Devalue Quickly To Reflate
- Revaluing the dollar (devaluation) would have reflated faster than Roosevelt's protracted gold operations.
- Keynes advised immediate devaluation rather than the ineffective gold-purchase scheme.
