The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series The New Ukraine Proxy War || Peter Zeihan
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Jan 12, 2026 Russia is depleting its prewar vehicle stock at an alarming rate, leading to military exhaustion. The war's terrain favors Ukrainian drones over Russian armored units, which are losing their initial advantages. Casualties are mounting for Russia as demographic limits hinder their mobilization efforts. Meanwhile, European military industries are ramping up, contrasting sharply with Russia's decline. The podcast explores the shifting dynamics of warfare, with European support bolstering Ukraine and China backing Russia.
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Vehicle Dominance Eroded By Doctrine And Terrain
- Russia began the invasion with overwhelming tank and armored-vehicle superiority inherited from the Soviet Union.
- Russian doctrine and terrain losses made vehicles vulnerable, reducing their battlefield value while drones rose in importance.
Equipment Shortages Reshape Russian Tactics
- Russia has essentially exhausted its prewar tank and armored-vehicle stocks and can only produce a few tanks per month now.
- Equipment shortages force tactical shifts like small infiltration teams and even horse charges where vehicles are unavailable.
High-Casualty Infiltrations And Rising Fatalities
- Russian tactics shifted to sending small infiltration teams repeatedly, raising casualty rates and fatality percentages.
- Zeihan estimates cumulative Russian casualties between 1.0 and 1.4 million with 200k–400k dead, and rising daily losses.