ThePrint ThePrintOpinion: India’s agricultural paradox—rising output, rising imports, and a shrinking trade surplus
Nov 20, 2025
India faces a puzzling agricultural paradox: despite record harvests, imports have surged dramatically. While the country celebrates increased foodgrain production, the rise from $53 billion to $63 billion in agricultural imports indicates deeper issues. Policy incentives push farmers towards staple crops, while urban demand shifts towards diversity. The reliance on imports grows in key sectors like edible oils and cocoa, despite domestic capacity. To reverse this, reforms targeting competitiveness and infrastructure are essential.
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Production Up, Surplus Down
- India records bumper harvests but agricultural imports rise sharply, creating a paradox.
- Rising imports outpace stagnant exports, shrinking the agricultural trade surplus.
Incentives Lock Cropping Patterns
- Policy incentives prioritize price stability, pushing farmers toward rice, wheat and sugarcane.
- This discourages diversification even though consumer demand has shifted to fruits, oils and processed foods.
Quick Imports Stunt Domestic Investment
- Immediate imports to stabilize prices reduce private investment in domestic supply chains.
- Constantly open import taps deter contract farming, cold chains and processor investment.