The David Lin Report Trade War Escalates: 100% Tariffs Threaten Global Meltdown | Shaun Rein
Oct 28, 2025
Shaun Rein, Founder of China Market Research Group and author of "The Split," shares his insights on the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. He argues that China holds the upper hand due to its leverage in rare earth minerals, which the U.S. heavily depends on. Renowned for his expertise on China’s economy, Shaun discusses the implications of potential 100% tariffs and why such measures could backfire. He also explores the dynamics of decoupling and the impact on global markets, highlighting the resilience of China's economy despite tensions.
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China's Rare Earth Refining Leverage
- China controls refined high-end rare earths critical to electronics and defense supply chains.
- That refining dominance gives China strategic leverage in a short-to-medium term trade conflict.
Refining, Not Mining, Is The Bottleneck
- China refined about 85% of rare earth supply and nearly all high-end refining for advanced uses.
- Building equivalent capacity outside China will take five to ten years at minimum.
Backfill Refining Capacity Now
- Invest in rare-earth refining capacity and technology in allied countries to reduce dependence on China.
- Expect a multi-year timeline and allocate capital accordingly.
