The Dividend Cafe A Check-In on the Economy
Nov 21, 2025
Delve into the current economic landscape with insights on job market trends and a softening housing sector. Discover why consumer sentiment isn't the reliable indicator it’s thought to be. Hear about the surprising income divergence affecting lower earners and understand how it shapes spending. Explore the idea that modest price drops in housing could be beneficial and the implications for GDP growth in the coming years. Tune in for a data-driven approach that dissects the nuanced state of the economy!
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Objectivity Over Political Narrative
- David L. Bahnsen stresses economic commentary should be objective and not politically motivated.
- He argues cogent methodology beats partisan talking points for assessing living standards and investment themes.
Labor Market Showing Strain, Not Collapse
- Multiple payroll indicators (ADP, BLS, Challenger) together show a softening labor market with notable revisions and layoffs.
- Bahnsen cautions jobs are weakening but says this does not yet signal an inevitable recession.
Government Prepaid Severance Distorts Jobs
- Bahnsen recounts the government's Deferred Resignation Program paying workers to leave and remaining on payrolls for eight months.
- He explains those workers will be recorded as out of the labor force rather than unemployed when they depart.