Velina Tchakarova on China, Russia, and the Future of Geopolitics
Jun 12, 2024
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Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova discusses Balkan Wars impact, China's potential approach to Taiwan, and Putin's aggressive strategies. She analyzes future scenarios, international law dynamics, and her unique approach to geopolitical analysis at FACE.
Understanding the concept of Balkanization is crucial for analyzing global power dynamics.
Geopolitical alignments in Eastern Europe are influenced by historical, cultural, and geographical factors.
Deep dives
Relevance of Balkan Wars Today
The Balkan Wars, notably the First and Second Balkan Wars, remain relevant today due to the concept of Balkanization, where external powers split countries to exert influence. This term still applies globally, influencing sentiments and political landscapes. References to historical events like the Sarajevo moment highlight ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Future of Bulgarian Nationalism
Bulgarian nationalism faces challenges due to demographic shifts, such as migration and low birth rates. While nationalism persists politically, the dream of a 'greater Bulgaria' with expanded borders seems unlikely. Political factors, like EU membership, play a role in reducing the likelihood of nationalist expansion.
Geopolitical Stability and Hegemonic Influence
The Balkans exhibit stability without a single hegemon, balancing multiple external powers like the EU, Russia, Turkey, and the US. Historical patterns of competition for influence continue, impacting regional dynamics and power struggles. The absence of a dominant hegemon necessitates a delicate balance among various influential actors.
Influence of Cultural, Religious, and Historical Factors
Eastern European nations' affinity towards Russia or the East stems from complex cultural, historical, and personal roots. Factors like religious ties, post-imperial legacies, and historical relationships shape nations' geopolitical alignments. The level of influence often relates to geographical proximity, historical collaborations, and shared cultural experiences.
You could try playing out the four-dimensional chess game of how the global order will shift in the next 10-15 years for yourself, or you could hire Velina Tchakarova. Founder of the consultancy FACE, Velina is a geopolitical strategist guiding businesses and organizations to anticipate the outcomes of global conflicts, shifting alliances, and bleeding edge technologies on the world stage.
In a globe-trotting conversation, Tyler and Velina start in the Balkans and then head to Russia, China, North Korea, and finally circle back to Putin’s interest in the Baltics. She gives her take on whether the Balkan Wars still matter today, the future of Bulgarian nationalism, what predicts which Eastern European countries will remain closer to Russia, why China will not attack Taiwan, Putin’s next move after Ukraine, where a nuclear weapon is most likely to be used next, how she sources intel, her unique approach to scenario-planning, and more.