The Macro Minute with Darius Dale The shutdown is ending; why aren’t risk assets appreciating?
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Nov 11, 2025 The end of the government shutdown isn’t boosting markets, and Darius attributes this to ongoing policy missteps by the Fed. He shares insights on worsening small business conditions and the labor market's hidden weaknesses. Key market players like SoftBank and NVIDIA are affecting index performance despite the shutdown news. He emphasizes the importance of systematic risk management strategies while questioning the role of cash on the sidelines in market dynamics.
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Fed Policy Overshadows Shutdown
- The end of the U.S. government shutdown is a sideshow compared to the Powell Fed's policy mistake.
- Monetary policy, not fiscal gridlock, is the primary driver keeping risk assets from appreciating.
Private Data Reveals Hidden Labor Weakness
- Private data from ADP shows labor market deterioration even as official releases are delayed by the shutdown.
- Weakness in small business hiring and sales signals subsequent jobs reports may disappoint and pressure the Fed's stance.
Macro Messaging Masks Small-Business Strain
- Corporate and media mentions of slowdown have fallen even as small business optimism deteriorates.
- This divergence suggests top-of-market optimism masks deeper cracks among small employers who drive employment growth.