The Grant Williams Podcast

The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 74 - Julian Brigden 2024

Feb 7, 2024

Julian Brigden, co-founder of independent research firm MI2 Partners, discusses the Goldilocks narrative, risks in the market, Tesla stock performance, the Chinese stock market, and the outlook for gold. He expresses skepticism about achieving a soft landing in the US economy and shares concerns about Tesla and the Chinese market. Julian also offers thoughts on gold being in a structural bull market.

12:50

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Episode guests

Julian Brigden

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Soft landings in the US economy are statistically rare, with only one in three tightening cycles resulting in one, posing potential risks in the current market environment.

The Federal Reserve is surprised by the success of their interest rate levels achieved through fiscal stimulus and is concerned about giving up the percentage points they've gained, considering market sensitivity.

Deep dives

Assessing the Probability of a Soft Landing: Historical Data

Looking at historical data, Julian Brigden analyzes tightening cycles since the 1960s. Out of 12 tightening cycles, there have been 8 recessions and 4 soft landings. Julian emphasizes that soft landings are statistically one in three occurrences. He highlights that three of the four soft landings had higher unemployment levels before the re-acceleration of real growth. Currently, inflation has fallen, but nominal GDP hasn't fallen at the same rate, suggesting potential risks. Additionally, Julian mentions the importance of productivity jumps as a potential get-out-of-jail card, allowing for high non-ology levels, low inflation, and potentially lower unemployment.

Introduction

2min

Analyzing Travel Schedules, Market Conditions, and 'Goldilocks'

2min

Analyzing the Concept of a Soft Landing in the Market

4min

Analyzing the Fed's Thinking and Rate Increase

5min

As we ease our way into 2024, I’m delighted to welcome back my great mate, Julian Brigden to the podcast. Julian is the co-founder of independent research firm MI2 Partners and, as he’s demonsrated in previous conversations, a hugely insightful and incredibly entertaining guest!

This time out, he and I discuss, amongst other things, the Goldilocks narrative, the potential risks in the current market environment, the performance of Tesla stock, the Chinese stock market, and the outlook for gold. Julian expresses his skepticism around threading the Goldilocks needle and highlights the historical challenges of achieving a soft landing in the US economy.

He also shares his concerns about the future of Tesla and the Chinese stock market and offers some thoughts on gold, which he believes is in a structural bull market, but… Here we go…

Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.

Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

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