The Grant Williams Podcast
The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 74 - Julian Brigden 2024
Feb 7, 2024
Julian Brigden, co-founder of independent research firm MI2 Partners, discusses the Goldilocks narrative, risks in the market, Tesla stock performance, the Chinese stock market, and the outlook for gold. He expresses skepticism about achieving a soft landing in the US economy and shares concerns about Tesla and the Chinese market. Julian also offers thoughts on gold being in a structural bull market.
12:50
Episode guests
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Soft landings in the US economy are statistically rare, with only one in three tightening cycles resulting in one, posing potential risks in the current market environment.
- The Federal Reserve is surprised by the success of their interest rate levels achieved through fiscal stimulus and is concerned about giving up the percentage points they've gained, considering market sensitivity.
Deep dives
Assessing the Probability of a Soft Landing: Historical Data
Looking at historical data, Julian Brigden analyzes tightening cycles since the 1960s. Out of 12 tightening cycles, there have been 8 recessions and 4 soft landings. Julian emphasizes that soft landings are statistically one in three occurrences. He highlights that three of the four soft landings had higher unemployment levels before the re-acceleration of real growth. Currently, inflation has fallen, but nominal GDP hasn't fallen at the same rate, suggesting potential risks. Additionally, Julian mentions the importance of productivity jumps as a potential get-out-of-jail card, allowing for high non-ology levels, low inflation, and potentially lower unemployment.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
