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The Bunker

The Israel/Hamas Ceasefire – Can it hold? – from This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Jan 17, 2025
In this discussion, Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, analyzes the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after 15 months of conflict. He highlights the ambiguous nature of the deal, questioning its potential for lasting peace amid political maneuvers from leaders like Trump and Biden. The conversation dives into the complexities of Israeli politics under Netanyahu and examines the uncertain future of Hamas governance in Gaza, revealing the pressing need for sustained diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid.
28:55

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas brings cautious optimism but faces skepticism about its potential for lasting peace amidst political instability.
  • Internal pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu complicate the peace process, as his political survival may depend on prolonging the conflict rather than seeking resolution.

Deep dives

The Ceasefire Agreement

A significant ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, leading to a cautious sense of optimism in the region. The deal includes an initial six-week ceasefire phase along with the staged release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, creating expectations for reduced violence and improved humanitarian aid delivery. However, despite this positive development, uncertainty persists regarding whether the ceasefire can evolve into a permanent resolution, as the political landscape remains fragile and often hostile. Observers note that previous ceasefires have often been undermined by renewed hostilities, casting doubt on the durability of the current agreement.

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