The Israel/Hamas Ceasefire – Can it hold? – from This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Jan 17, 2025
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In this discussion, Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, analyzes the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after 15 months of conflict. He highlights the ambiguous nature of the deal, questioning its potential for lasting peace amid political maneuvers from leaders like Trump and Biden. The conversation dives into the complexities of Israeli politics under Netanyahu and examines the uncertain future of Hamas governance in Gaza, revealing the pressing need for sustained diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid.
The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas brings cautious optimism but faces skepticism about its potential for lasting peace amidst political instability.
Internal pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu complicate the peace process, as his political survival may depend on prolonging the conflict rather than seeking resolution.
Deep dives
The Ceasefire Agreement
A significant ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, leading to a cautious sense of optimism in the region. The deal includes an initial six-week ceasefire phase along with the staged release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, creating expectations for reduced violence and improved humanitarian aid delivery. However, despite this positive development, uncertainty persists regarding whether the ceasefire can evolve into a permanent resolution, as the political landscape remains fragile and often hostile. Observers note that previous ceasefires have often been undermined by renewed hostilities, casting doubt on the durability of the current agreement.
Challenges Facing Israeli Politics
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival is closely tied to ongoing conflict, complicating any moves towards lasting peace. The internal dynamics of Israeli politics reveal pressures from right-wing coalitions, causing Netanyahu to adopt a cautious approach towards the ceasefire in order to maintain his position. Historical precedents show that significant crises, such as the inquiry after the October 1973 war, could threaten his leadership should the war come to an end. Consequently, Netanyahu may find it advantageous to prolong the conflict to evade scrutiny over his government's decisions and failures.
Future of Hamas and Gaza Governance
The future governance of Gaza remains uncertain, particularly with regard to Hamas's role after the ceasefire. While many Palestinians in Gaza have mixed feelings toward Hamas, it appears that the group continues to hold a semblance of influence, founded on long-standing grievances stemming from the occupation. However, the absence of a clear alternative governing body raises concerns about who will assume leadership in the post-conflict scenario. The complex interplay of regional diplomacy suggests that any reconstruction efforts hinge on the establishment of a stable governance framework that includes a fully recognized Palestinian authority.
After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite?
Gavin Esler talks to Middle East expert Dr H.A. Hellyer of RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security, about Israel and Gaza’s fragile moment of hope.
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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production