BiggerPockets Daily Are We Closer to the Lock-In Effect Breaking?
Nov 9, 2025
The podcast delves into the current housing market, highlighting a drop in 30-year mortgage rates to 6.56%. Despite this decrease, experts argue that buyer interest hasn't surged due to insufficient rate reductions. Inventory trends reveal limited supply keeping prices high, while mortgage application and search activity provide insight into demand signals. The discussion also explores the critical 'lock-in' threshold, suggesting it may break around 5.5%–6%, influencing future market dynamics.
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Rates Are Improving But Still Restrictive
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.56%, the lowest in over 10 months, trimming median monthly payments to $2,593.
- Despite lower payments, rates remain ~5% higher than a year ago and still limit buyer activity.
Buyers Return Slowly On Rate Relief
- Lower monthly payments sparked a 1.6% rise in pending home sales year over year, signaling cautious buyer returns.
- Redfin agents say mortgage rates haven't fallen enough to unleash a flood of buyers who are watching for sub-6% rates.
Inventory Growth Is Modest And Cooling
- New listings rose just 1.1% while total inventory increased 11.3%, the smallest inventory rise in 18 months.
- Median days on market lengthened to 44 days and fewer homes sell above list, showing selective buyer behavior.