A Middle East on the Brink

31 snips

Jul 30, 2024

Haviv Rettig Gur, journalist for The Times of Israel, provides a gripping analysis of the escalating tensions in the Middle East. He discusses the dire situation following a Hezbollah rocket attack that tragically killed 12 children, raising fears of an all-out war. Gur explores Israel's strategic dilemmas amid threats from Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, evaluating the impact of U.S. policy and upcoming elections. He also delves into the complexities of the Druze community and the significance of the Abraham Accords in shifting regional alliances.

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ANECDOTE

Hezbollah Rocket Attack

Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel, killing children on a soccer field.
They later tried to blame Israel, claiming it was an interceptor missile.

INSIGHT

The Druze Identity

The Druze are a religious offshoot of Islam with a secretive, mystical tradition and a loyalty to their ruling state.
Many Druze in the Golan Heights, historically loyal to Syria, now desire Israeli citizenship.

INSIGHT

Media Bias in Middle East Coverage

Western media coverage often downplays attacks on Israel, potentially reflecting ingrained biases.
This creates a distorted narrative, ignoring the severity of events like the Druze children's deaths.

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On Saturday afternoon, a Hezbollah rocket fired from southern Lebanon struck a soccer field in the village of Majdal Shams in Israel’s north, slaughtering 12 children.

For the last 10 months, many have warned that Israel is on the brink of a major war with Hezbollah. But the truth is that Hezbollah has been fighting—and winning—in Israel’s north since October 8. For the past 10 months, Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy terror group that controls southern Lebanon, has essentially redrawn the northern border of Israel by pummeling the border towns daily with rockets, leaving 225 square miles unlivable for Israelis and displacing around 80,000 Israeli citizens.

Israel—pounded by Iranian proxies from all directions—now faces one of the most perilous moments in recent history. The prospect of an all-out war with Hezbollah, which could very well spread to a larger, more dangerous regional war—perhaps directly with Iran—seems closer than ever.

What is Israel going to do? Will Israel choose to confront Hezbollah, or will they respond in a more limited way to avoid the regional escalation that the Americans so fear? How does U.S. policy, and the upcoming presidential election, influence Israel’s strategic calculation? Is Kamala Harris equipped to bring calm to the region? Or are Israelis just waiting for Trump to return to office? Is America’s current policy—which is the containment of Iran—backfiring and inadvertently creating a regional crisis? Most importantly, should we be thinking about the war with Gaza and the war with Hezbollah as discrete fights, or are they all part of a broader war that’s already underway between Israel and Iran?

Answering those questions today is Haviv Rettig Gur. Haviv is a journalist and writer for The Times of Israel, and he is one of the most important and insightful thinkers of our time on Israel and the Middle East.

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