The Intelligence from The Economist Strike fear: Iran’s protests and Israel
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Jan 12, 2026 
Anshul Pfeffer, The Economist's Israel correspondent, shares insights on the precarious dynamics between Israel and Iran amidst ongoing protests. He and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discuss the potential for miscalculation during Iran's unrest, the implications of regional security, and Israel's cautious approach to military action. They explore Israel's strategic gains from Iran's turmoil while also touching on the evolving landscape of generative AI and its potential to reshape future job markets and European pension systems.
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Protests Could Trigger Regional Escalation
- Israel fears Iran might strike abroad to distract from domestic unrest or to preempt perceived Israeli attacks.
- That fear raises the risk of miscalculation and a renewed Israel–Iran military escalation.
Netanyahu Favors Patience Over Immediate Strike
- Benjamin Netanyahu supports taking out Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities but is cautious about timing now.
- Israel prefers lowering its profile to avoid appearing to interfere while watching how protests unfold.
Instability Could Yield Strategic Gains
- Israel can gain strategically if Iran must focus inward: weakened proxy networks and risk to missile and nuclear assets.
- Long term, Israel sees a potential regional realignment if Iran's government changes fundamentally.