The Death of Small Cap Equities? with Chris Satterthwaite, Senior Analyst at Verdad Advisors
Dec 5, 2023
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Chris Satterthwaite, Senior Analyst at Verdad Advisors, discusses the downfall of small cap equities, exploring factors such as declining quality of small caps, analysis of gross profit to assets as a key quality metric, decline in quality amongst small cap companies, structural issues of the Russell 2000 index, changing perception of private equity, and the changing market composition with a focus on opportunities for small-cap investors outside the US and in specific industries.
The decline in small cap equities is attributed to a higher proportion of unprofitable companies, especially in healthcare and technology sectors, and the influence of private equity.
Investors should focus on quality and valuation when selecting small cap companies, as the changing composition of small cap indices presents both challenges and opportunities for investors.
Deep dives
Understanding the Decline in Quality of Small Cap Equities
The decline in quality of small cap equities has been a topic of discussion in the investment community. It is observed that small cap stocks have been underperforming large cap stocks for a prolonged period, which raises questions about the factors driving this trend. One hypothesis is that the composition of small cap stocks has changed, with a higher proportion of unprofitable companies, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors. Private equity has played a role in this shift, as higher-quality companies are being taken private or staying private longer. Another hypothesis is that there are structural changes affecting the profitability of small cap companies, or that this decline is cyclical and related to the macroeconomic environment. The decline in quality is more significant in the US market, while Japanese and European markets show more stable or increasing signs of quality among both large and small caps.
Impact of the Composition of Small Cap Indices
The changing composition of small cap indices has important implications for investors. With a greater percentage of unprofitable companies in the index, it is crucial to carefully select small cap companies based on their quality and valuation. This calls for a diligent approach to building small cap portfolios, focusing on high-quality, undervalued businesses. While the decline in small cap quality may discourage some investors, it also presents an opportunity for those who are willing to do the necessary research and select companies with strong fundamentals.
Factors Affecting Small Cap Equities
Several factors contribute to the decline in small cap equities. The rise of private equity as an asset class has led to a selectivity bias, with higher-quality companies being taken or staying private. Structural changes in the profitability of small cap companies, cyclical trends, and mix shifts within sectors and types of companies also play a role. The decline in quality is most evident in sectors like healthcare and technology, where there is a higher concentration of unprofitable companies. However, other sectors like energy, consumer staples, and industrials offer more attractive valuations and stable quality metrics.
The Importance of Selectivity in Small Cap Investing
Despite the decline in overall quality, small cap equities still hold potential for investors who are selective in their approach. It is crucial to focus on companies with strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and potential for growth. Rather than relying on broad small cap indices, investors should actively research and identify high-quality, undervalued companies within the small cap universe. This approach applies not only to the US market but also to international markets like Japan, where small cap quality metrics have shown improvement. Investing in small caps requires diligence and a willingness to uncover diamonds in the rough, which can lead to favorable returns even in the face of a changing landscape.
My guest on the show today is Chris Satterthwaite, Senior Analyst at Verdad Advisors. The team at Verdad put out a phenomenal weekly newsletter, and they recently published one titled, "The Death of Small Cap Equities?" We've been talking for a while here about all the various issues plaguing the Small/MicroCap space, and invited Chris to share the research the Verdad team have uncovered.
For more information about Chris Satterthwaite and Verdad, please visit: https://verdadcap.com/
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