Real Vision: Finance & Investing Macro Mondays: What Happens If Trump's Dollar Playbook FAILS? ft. Raoul Pal & Andreas Steno Larsen
Jan 13, 2025
Curious about the implications of a strong dollar? The hosts delve into its effects on international trade, particularly the U.S.-China relationship. They analyze economic trends post-Trump, discussing inflation predictions and the housing market's response to interest rates. Liquidity challenges faced by central banks are addressed, along with emerging investment strategies in today's market. Plus, there are insights on how a weaker dollar could shape trading dynamics as the year begins. Perfect for those fascinated by finance!
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Dollar Strength as a Negotiation Tactic
- The strong dollar is driven by fears of Trump's new administration and tariff policies, mirroring 2016-17.
- This strength could be a tactic in trade negotiations, offering a weaker dollar as an incentive for cooperation.
Mirroring 2016-17 Market Conditions
- Global M2 growth mirrors 2016-17 patterns, influencing asset prices like the NASDAQ and Bitcoin.
- Current market conditions suggest a potential repeat of the post-Trump-election market trends.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios
- Bitcoin's price action might follow two scenarios: a sharper fall mirroring the M2 drop or a decoupling and subsequent rise like in 2017.
- Raoul Pal believes the bottom is in for Bitcoin based on historical parallels.