The Grant Williams Podcast The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 109 - Julien Garran
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Oct 20, 2025 Julien Garran, a macro strategist at MacroStrategy (UK), dives deep into the potential dangers of the AI mania, likening it to past bubbles like the dot-com and housing booms but with greater risks. He critiques current monetary policies for leading to significant capital misallocation, revealing a fragile financial system. Julien highlights the monopolistic behaviors of tech giants and the inherent flaws in large language models, stressing their unsustainable losses and potential to disrupt global capital flows and productivity.
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Wixell Spread Reveals Unprecedented Misallocation
- The Wixell spread shows how extreme 2021 monetary policy created massive incentives to misallocate capital.
- Julien estimates cumulative misallocated capital near 65% of US GDP, far exceeding dot-com and housing peaks.
Evaluate Investments On Full-Cycle Returns
- Do not assume easy-money-driven projects will deliver long-term returns.
- Assess investments against full-cycle returns, not short-term horizons created by stimulus.
Political Constraints Amplify Bubble Risks
- Large-scale misallocation becomes politically intolerable when losses crystallize and require big policy responses.
- Julien warns that unwinding could force monetary and fiscal reactions that debase currencies and shift capital offshore.
