In Moscow's Shadows 118: Clueless in Gaza - Russia and the current Middle East crisis
Oct 14, 2023
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Analyzing Russia's potential role in the Israel-Gaza crisis, including the competence of Hamas versus the Russian armed forces, Russia's interest in Israel and the varying perspectives from Russian actors. The role of narratives in shaping public opinion and the media's portrayal of the crisis are also explored. The possibility of Hamas acquiring weapons and the likelihood of Russian involvement are questioned.
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Quick takeaways
Russia faces complex policy dilemmas in the Middle East, navigating relationships with Israel, Hamas, and Iran while trying to maintain positive relations with various actors.
Russian TV commentary should not be taken as direct representation of policy, as extreme views cater to a specific audience and do not reflect official government stance.
Deep dives
The Role of Russia in the Israel-Gaza Conflict
In the podcast episode, the speaker addresses the question of Russia's role in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza. While some have claimed that Russia orchestrated the conflict to distract from the situation in Ukraine, the speaker argues that there is no evidence to support these allegations. Furthermore, the speaker highlights the complexities for Russia in navigating its relationships with both Israel and Hamas. The speaker suggests that Russia wants to maintain its diplomatic traction in the Middle East and avoid burning bridges with either party. Additionally, the podcast explores the differing narratives surrounding the conflict and cautions against assuming that everything is connected to Russia. Finally, the speaker discusses how Russia might take advantage of the situation to further its own agenda, such as using it to promote anti-American sentiment and exploit higher oil prices. However, the speaker emphasizes the need to maintain a sense of proportion and not overstate Russia's role in the crisis.
Russia's Policy Dilemmas in the Middle East
According to the podcast, Russia faces complex policy dilemmas in the Middle East, particularly in the current Israel-Gaza conflict. The speaker describes how Putin and the Russian government, presented with difficult choices and no clear best options, tend to become paralyzed. This paralysis is reflected in their cautious and bland statements regarding the conflict. The speaker also highlights the different interests and relationships Russia has with various actors in the Middle East. While Russia has a relationship with Hamas and Iran, it also wants to maintain positive relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Navigating these relationships and balancing interests poses challenges for Russia's Middle East strategy. The speaker suggests that Russia's slow decision-making and lack of clear direction contribute to multiple policy lines emerging within the Russian government and institutions.
Differing Narratives and Media Coverage
The podcast explores the different narratives presented in the media regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict and cautions against taking Russian TV commentary as direct representation of policy. The speaker explains how extreme views on Russian TV shows cater to a specific audience and rev up supporters rather than reflecting official policy. It is important to differentiate between the TV commentary and the stance of the Russian government. The speaker notes that different newspapers and media outlets within Russia have varying perspectives, with some focusing on humanitarian aspects or presenting a more anti-Israel stance. The podcast emphasizes that it is crucial to recognize the nuanced and complex nature of media coverage and not assume that it fully represents Russian policy.
Russian Exploitation and Opportunities
The podcast highlights how Russia can exploit the Israel-Gaza conflict to its advantage. It suggests that Russia may use the situation to fuel anti-American sentiment, presenting the United States as responsible for conflict escalation and unable to resolve crises. This narrative could find traction in some regions and undermine support for American policies. Additionally, the speaker discusses how Russia might use the conflict as a distraction from the situation in Ukraine, hoping to prolong the war and weaken Western support for Ukraine. The speaker also mentions the potential impact of higher oil prices resulting from Middle East instability, which could benefit Russia as an oil exporter. However, the podcast stresses the need to keep Russia's role in context and not overstate its influence in the conflict.
A quick and early episode looking at what roles and goals - if any - Russia has in the current Hamas-Israel war. The bottom line is that Russia was not behind the terrorist invasion, doesn't really know how to respond, is putting out different and even contradictory messages and yet will taken whatever advantage from it that it can.
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