The ACID Capitalist Podcast 10x ʀɪᴄʜᴇʀ ᴏʀ ᴅᴇᴀᴅ ☠️
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Nov 21, 2025 Hugh Hendry dives into playful and curious thinking in market strategy, emphasizing its power over rigid methodologies. He shares insights on today's bubbling risk markets and societal tensions. The discussion includes a four-quadrant portfolio strategy, highlighting cash, tech equities, long-duration bonds, and alternatives. Hugh warns of potential pitfalls in treasury markets while exploring the massive refinancing opportunities if interest rates drop. The idea of keeping things simple in market navigation and recognizing long-term price compression patterns is also a key takeaway.
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Imagination Beats Process
- Playfulness, curiosity and mischief are necessary to envision market futures beyond rigid process.
- Hugh Hendry argues imagination beats excessive credentialed certainty when sizing risk and opportunities.
Bubbles Compress Outcomes
- Risk markets are in a clear compressed bubble driven by rapid prosperity narratives.
- Hendry warns bubbles concentrate outcomes and demand careful sizing rather than certainty in forecasts.
Early Gold Trade Paid Off
- Hendry recounts buying gold when the Bank of England sold much of its hoard in 2002.
- That early contrarian gold position returned 50% in 2003 and shaped his contrarian instincts.