Geopolitical tensions can lead to financial fragmentation and impact the cross-border allocation of capital and asset prices.
Recent bank failures in the United States reveal vulnerabilities in the financial system and highlight the challenges posed by tighter monetary and financial conditions.
Deep dives
Impact of Financial Fragmentation on Global Financial Stability
Financial fragmentation induced by geopolitical tensions can have significant implications for financial stability. It can affect the cross-border allocation of capital, national payment systems, and asset prices. The smallest increase in geopolitical tensions between investing and recipient countries can lead to a substantial reduction in bilateral cross-border portfolio bank allocations. The recent months have been challenging with persistently high inflation and a couple of bank failures that exposed vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities, including liquidity, duration, and credit risks, have kept financial stability risks elevated.
The Global Financial System and Banking Sector Challenges
The failure of two US banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, highlights the challenges posed by tighter monetary and financial conditions. While initially appearing as isolated events, these bank failures quickly spread via technology and social media, causing sharp repricing of interest rate expectations and a sell-off in risk assets. The current state of the banking sector reveals shifting patterns of positivity, leading to funding restrictions and potential credit supply limitations. The integration of non-bank financial institutions into the banking system further amplifies vulnerabilities.
Emerging Markets, Weaknesses, and Central Bank Challenges
Emerging markets face similar risks as advanced economies, but with potentially larger impacts on growth due to the larger role banks play in their financial systems. While emerging markets have generally avoided the same pressures seen in advanced economies, vulnerabilities such as liquidity mismatches, leverage, and interconnectedness remain. Additionally, emerging markets have lower levels of deposit insurance coverage and less fiscal space to address banking sector problems. Central banks face the challenge of financial stress complicating their task, particularly in dealing with persistent inflation and balancing monetary policy with financial stability goals.
Financial stability never comes easy, but the past few months have been especially challenging with persistently high inflation and two bank failures in the United States that exposed vulnerabilities lurking beneath the surface. The latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) examines all the worrying trends including the potential economic impact of rising geopolitical tensions. Fabio Natalucci heads the GFSR. In this podcast, he says while regulatory changes put in place after the Global Financial Crisis have made the financial system more resilient, recent events may be a harbinger of more systemic stress to come.