RiskReversal Pod

Marko Kolanovic: Might is Right & The New Economic World Order

Mar 18, 2025

Marko Kolanovic, former Chief Market Strategist at JP Morgan, shares his insights on the current state of the S&P and the dynamics behind its recent declines. He analyzes the geopolitical factors and US tariffs influencing market trends. The discussion covers recession indicators, corporate capital expenditures, and the implications of fiscal policies. Marko emphasizes the uncertainty in today's economy and the challenges that arise in forecasting market movements, particularly for major sectors like tech and consumer spending.

54:08

Episode guests

Marko Kolanovic

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The recent rapid declines in the S&P emphasize the interconnectedness of investor sentiment and market algorithms, impacting trading dynamics significantly.

Geopolitical tensions and international trade relationships, especially with China and the EU, are crucial factors influencing U.S. market sentiment and economic stability.

The cautious approach to capital expenditures among major corporations reflects broader economic uncertainties, potentially signaling future market health and investor confidence.

Deep dives

Current M&A and IPO Activity

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and initial public offerings (IPOs) are being closely monitored as indicators of market health. There's speculation that 2023 might signal a resurgence in these areas as companies adapt their strategies to navigate economic uncertainty. The link between current market trends and investor sentiment suggests that as confidence improves, so too might the willingness of companies to engage in M&A and pursue public listings. Investors are assessing how various sectors will respond to changing market dynamics, directly impacting their strategic decisions.

Intro

5min

Analyzing Rapid Market Sell-offs and Technical Indicators

2min

Navigating Market Turbulence

17min

Navigating Capital Strategies in a Volatile Market

2min

Navigating Economic Uncertainties

24min

Market Implications of NVIDIA's Keynote and Economic Caution

2min

Navigating CapEx Cuts and Market Sentiments

3min

Dan Nathan and Marko Kolanovic, Former Chief Market Strategist at JP Morgan, discuss recent market trends on the Risk Reversal Podcast. They explore the state of the S&P and its rapid declines, the geopolitical and policy influences affecting the market, and the implications of US tariffs and trade conflicts. Marko provides insights into the technical dynamics of recent sell-offs, potential recession indicators, and the impact of global fiscal policies. The conversation also touches on corporate CapEx, interest rates, and the outlook for major sectors like tech equities and consumer spending. Marko emphasizes the heightened uncertainty in the current economic environment and the challenges in forecasting market movements.

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