The IDF’s 10/7 Probe - with Amos Harel & Nadav Eyal
Mar 3, 2025
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Amos Harel, a Defense Analyst at Haaretz, and Nadav Eyal, a Senior Political Analyst at Yediot Achronot, dive into the IDF's investigation of military failures surrounding the October 7 Hamas attack. They discuss critical intelligence oversights, the shocking underestimation of Hamas's capabilities, and the challenges of military decision-making during routine threats. The conversation also touches on the importance of accountability and lessons from historical military lapses, highlighting urgent needs for reform within the Israeli defense system.
Israeli intelligence ignored significant warning signs about Hamas's impending attack, leading to a devastating underestimation of their operational capabilities.
The IDF's response failure during the October 7 attack was marked by chaotic conditions and a severe lack of preparedness within military ranks.
Calls for accountability and reform within Israeli military structures are crucial to prevent future lapses and improve defense strategies.
Deep dives
Failures in Intelligence and Preparedness
Israeli intelligence revealed that numerous investigative reports indicated a series of alarming signs preceding the Hamas attack on October 7th, 2023. The military identified unusual activities, such as Hamas operatives using Israeli SIM cards, suggesting a planned assault. Despite these warnings, the chain of command failed to escalate readiness, reflecting a deep-seated misconception about Hamas's capabilities and intentions. The military responses were hindered by a slow reaction and an underestimation of the imminent threat, leading to a catastrophic lack of preparedness.
The Tragic Events of October 7th
On the morning of the attack, Hamas launched an unprecedented assault with roughly 5,000 terrorists overwhelming Israeli defenses. At the IDF base at Nahal Oz, a significant military failure unfolded as the base was inadequately guarded and caught off-guard. Reports detail horrific scenes where soldiers faced overwhelming forces without proper training or command structure, resulting in high casualties and hostages taken. The chaos and disarray exemplified the severe gaps in readiness and response protocols that ultimately failed to protect both soldiers and civilians.
Systematic Issues in Military Leadership
A critical examination of leadership decisions leading up to the attack highlighted significant flaws in military hierarchy and communication. The IDF's chief of staff was notified of escalating threats late in the night, yet decisions favored a cautious approach over immediate action. Discussions were characterized by a prevailing belief that the situation was not urgent, which ultimately led to insufficient deployment of forces at key defense points. This lapse not only resulted in a surprise attack but underscored a broader issue of accountability within military ranks and the need for reform.
Cultural Blindness towards Threats
A prevailing narrative within Israeli intelligence portrayed Hamas as a lesser threat, allowing complacency to set in regarding their military capabilities and strategic ambitions. Many believed that as long as Hamas maintained control in Gaza, it posed no significant risk, creating a false sense of security. This cultural blindness prevented the military and intelligence agencies from recognizing and reacting to an evolving threat over the years. The investigation into the October 7th attack revealed that a serious reassessment of Hamas's intentions had been long overdue.
Need for Accountability and Change
The recent investigation calls for a profound transformation in Israeli military and political structures in response to the failures revealed in the context of the Hamas attack. There are growing demands for a formal state inquiry that would hold senior leaders accountable for their decisions and failures. The absence of robust investigative processes limits opportunities for learning and prevents necessary reforms within the military. An acknowledgment of mistakes and a commitment to systemic changes are essential for improving Israel's defense strategy moving forward.
On Thursday, the IDF released the scathing findings of its probe into the military failures that led up to and accompanied the massacre of October 7, 2023.
According to those findings, the military vastly underestimated Hamas’s capabilities, misread its intentions, and failed to mount an effective response to the mass invasion of Israel’s borders. The IDF’s probe into its own failures reveals both the extent to which warnings went ignored, and the extent to which so many communities in Southern Israel were forced to fend for themselves.
While some of these findings come as no surprise, they are still shocking and devastating to process. We spoke with two of Israel’s leading national security journalists to walk through the key points of the findings.
Amos Harel is the Defense Analyst at Haaretz, and Nadav Eyal is a Senior Political Analyst at Yediot Achronot.
CREDITS:
ILAN BENATAR - Producer & Editor
MARTIN HUERGO - Additional Editing
YARDENA SCHWARTZ - Executive Editor of Ark Media
GABE SILVERSTEIN - Research
YUVAL SEMO - Music Composer
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