The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Why should investors pay more attention to the US housing market?
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Sep 30, 2025 Investors are urged to closely monitor the U.S. housing market due to weakening home prices and building permits. Darius discusses how housing acts as a vital business-cycle indicator amid current downturns. The podcast highlights the dynamics between existing and new home sales, as well as the impact of low new home supply on the economy. Additionally, conversations on credit availability and policy implications reveal potential paths forward for housing demand. A heartfelt client testimonial underscores the effectiveness of the analysis provided.
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Housing Signals Broader Macro Regime Risk
- U.S. housing weakness and falling permits signal deeper structural fragilities in the economy.
- These trends support a case for structural regime change at the Federal Reserve.
Housing As A Leading Business Cycle Indicator
- The housing cycle is a persistent leading indicator of the business cycle in 42 Macro's model.
- Current data imply at best a moderating downturn with supply still structurally depressed.
New Homes Rising While Supply Stays Shrunk
- New home sales comprise a record 17% of total because the lock-in effect restrains existing-home transactions.
- Residential fixed investment share is near post-GFC lows, keeping supply cyclically and structurally tight.