Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 26, 2024
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Dec 26, 2024 Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, predicts increased market volatility in January, urging vigilance among investors. Wendy Schiller, Director at Brown University, discusses the complexities facing the incoming Trump administration, emphasizing that quick victories are unlikely despite a Republican trifecta. The conversation also touches on global investment opportunities, with a focus on China amidst rising trade tensions and geopolitical strategies that could reshape U.S.-Europe relations.
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Muted Santa Rally?
- The so-called "Santa Claus rally" has historically yielded positive returns, averaging 1.3% since 1950.
- However, Peter Tchir suggests the 2024 rally might be muted due to pre-holiday buying and looming uncertainties.
Trump Factor & Volatility
- Markets might have prematurely priced in positive outcomes related to Trump's return, overlooking his tendency for disruption.
- Tchir anticipates increased market volatility in January as Trump's actions and their impact become clearer.
Trump's Early Priorities
- Tchir predicts Trump will initially prioritize easy wins achievable through executive orders, focusing on visible issues like immigration.
- These early moves will set the tone for his administration and influence market reactions.