Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, predicts increased market volatility in January, urging vigilance among investors. Wendy Schiller, Director at Brown University, discusses the complexities facing the incoming Trump administration, emphasizing that quick victories are unlikely despite a Republican trifecta. The conversation also touches on global investment opportunities, with a focus on China amidst rising trade tensions and geopolitical strategies that could reshape U.S.-Europe relations.
Peter Tchir anticipates significant market volatility in January, influenced by shifting economic policies and global market conditions.
Wendy Schiller emphasizes the challenges the incoming Trump administration may face despite a Republican trifecta, highlighting potential delays in achieving policy victories.
Deep dives
Impact of Infrastructure Legislation
Recent landmark infrastructure legislation aims to significantly enhance the construction and development of American infrastructure. The GlobalX U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF, known as PAVE, diversifies investments across numerous companies that are crucial for this development. This ETF offers exposure to the risks associated with infrastructure investments, such as economic downturns and regulatory changes that may impact the companies involved. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors considering opportunities in this sector, especially with the anticipated boom in infrastructure projects.
Market Activity and Predictions
The podcast discusses the prevailing market conditions following a Christmas Eve rally, where U.S. futures were observed to soften slightly. Investors are hopeful for a continuation of the so-called 'Santa Claus rally', a market phenomenon that typically sees gains in the final trading days of the year. Historical trends indicate the S&P 500 has performed particularly well during this period, averaging gains significantly higher than other times. However, uncertainties around upcoming economic policies and market volatility in January could potentially temper these expectations.
Bond Market and Fiscal Policy Concerns
There is a strong indication that the bond market will play a critical role in shaping congressional power dynamics as the new administration takes office. Analysts point to concerns about the rising debt and fiscal discipline, noting that the government must navigate substantial refinancing of existing debt while addressing interest expense that contributes to the deficit. Higher yields may emerge in response to persistent inflationary pressures and spending patterns, which could complicate fiscal strategies and potentially slow economic growth. The commentary suggests vigilance regarding bond investments as they become increasingly pivotal in determining the government's fiscal health.
Global Economic Competition and Investment Opportunities
The discussion highlights a shifting landscape in global economic competition, particularly focusing on the implications of fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S., Europe, and China. As the U.S. prepares for a new administration, there is a marked opportunity for international markets to gain traction, especially as economic growth prospects improve outside the U.S. The equity market in China has shown robust performance amidst global challenges, highlighting investment opportunities in Chinese tech and other sectors despite regional struggles. In contrast, Europe faces hurdles but is anticipated to adapt its fiscal policies to enhance growth and attract capital, creating potential investment avenues.
-Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities -Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center For American Politics and Policy Director At Brown University -Jay Pelosky, Chief Investment Officer/Co-Founder, TPW Investment Management
Peter Tchir of Academy Securities says he thinks January will bring, "a lot of volatility." Wendy Schiller of Brown University warns the incoming Trump administration, "Even with the Republican trifecta you will not always get the victories quickly." Jay Pelosky of TPW Investment Management is, "looking at opportunities outside the US."