"Why the Religious Will Inherit the Earth" with Eric Kaufmann
Oct 13, 2023
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Eric Kaufmann, political scientist and author, discusses his experience at Birkbeck College, decline in secular birth rates, tension between liberal politics on immigration and LGBTQ, and the happiness gap between conservatives and liberals.
The world's population growth is occurring in religious parts of the world, leading to a resurgence of religion through birth rates and immigration.
The tension between pro-immigration and pro-LGBTQ values within progressive movements creates challenges in maintaining political coalitions.
Assuming wokeness can be treated as a religion, it may face challenges in growth and influence due to low birth rates and potential ideological conversion.
Cultural assimilation is a complex process influenced by factors such as intermarriage rates and the strength of religious and cultural practices.
Deep dives
The Demographic Shift Towards Religious Groups
The world's population growth is occurring in religious parts of the world, while secular regions are aging and declining. This global demographic shift is leading to a resurgence of religion through birth rates and immigration. The growth and retention rates of highly religious sects, such as the Amish, Hutterites, Ultra-Orthodox Jews, and traditionalist Calvinists, are significantly higher than the rest of the population. However, while evangelical Christianity is growing, it is not reaching the levels of world-denying religious groups. Ultimately, assimilation and intermarriage have the potential to override these demographic trends and influence cultural change.
Challenges in Maintaining Political Coalitions
The tension between pro-immigration and pro-LGBTQ values is emerging as a contradiction within progressive movements. Immigrant groups with more conservative cultural backgrounds often conflict with LGBTQ rights movements. Similar tensions exist within feminism and the LGBTQ community, particularly concerning women's spaces. These contradictions create challenges in maintaining political coalitions and may have implications for long-term cultural and political change.
The Future of Wokeness and Demographic Shifts
Assuming wokeness can be treated as a religion, it is likely to face challenges in terms of low birth rates due to values that prioritize individualism and non-traditional gender roles. Demographic data has shown a significant increase in identification as LGBTQ among secular college students. However, the future of wokeness depends on factors such as intermarriage rates, endogamy by political and religious affiliation, and the ability to promote ideological conversion. If partisan endogamy and switching prove significant, the wokeness movement may face challenges in growth and influence.
The Impact of Cultural Assimilation and Demographic Change
Cultural assimilation is a complex process that can have varying impacts on different generations and ethnic groups. While some traits may exhibit continuity across generations, others may not. The level of intermarriage and the development of new cultural traditions can influence assimilation outcomes. Over time, assimilation tends to override the influence of ancestral cultural traits. However, the process and its impact may differ based on factors such as demographic trends, intergroup marriages, and the strength of religious and cultural practices.
Identifying Investment Opportunities Based on Demographic Trends
Investment opportunities related to demographic trends could involve targeting religiously-branded companies, universities, and schools that align with the growing religious population. Supporting brands that cater to conservative Christian markets, which are currently underserved, may present significant growth potential. For example, investments in entertainment platforms that cater to right-wing audiences or in companies that align with the preferences of ultra-orthodox Jewish communities could tap into emerging market segments. However, the success of such investments often depends on factors like cultural and partisan boundaries, dating patterns, and the ability to attract and retain customers.
The potential for conservatives to mobilize politically
The podcast discusses how the politically committed group at Harvard is predominantly Democrat, highlighting the advantage that Democrats have. However, it suggests that conservatives might be able to mobilize and bring more people into politics, potentially balancing the political landscape. The podcast mentions past civic associations on the right, like the American Legion and the Grand Army of the Republic, which successfully mobilized their memberships. The speaker also mentions the ability of grassroots conservative movements, like the religious right, to gather large numbers of people for protests. Although these movements are not as numerous as those on the left, there is potential for conservatives to increase their mobilizing capacity, possibly with the help of social media.
The question of secularization and religion's survivability
The podcast delves into the question of whether human society can survive without religion for more than two generations. While there are different definitions of secularism and religion, the speaker challenges the idea that low private belief and attendance in countries like Northern Europe and France, which have been in this situation for more than two generations, will lead to their downfall. They acknowledge possible consequences such as lower birth rates and social problems, but argue that highly religious societies also face challenges such as intolerance and resistance to change. The speaker questions the validity of the two generations thesis and suggests that artificial wombs, if developed, might have different implications for secular and religious populations in terms of population growth and preservation.
My guest today is Eric Kaufmann. Eric is a political scientist who's written several great books, including "Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?" and "Whiteshift". Eric was a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London for many years. I think he was actually the head of the department there, before he was pushed out for his political views. So we talk about that story at the top of this interview.
We also talk about a whole bunch of other topics. We discuss the sociologist Daniel Bell. We talk about why birth rates are declining in the secular world and why it matters. We talk about high birth rate populations like Hasidic Jews and the Amish. We talk about the tension between liberal politics on immigration and liberal politics on LGBTQ. We talk about why Canada and Scotland are so much further to the left on gender and trans issues than America is. Finally, we talk about why it is that conservatives appear to be happier in data than liberals generally, and why religious people also tend to be happier than secular people, and what lessons, if any, we can draw from that. This was one of my favorite podcasts I've done this year, and I hope you enjoy it.
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