Global Macro Update: Stocks Break Down, Bitcoin Teeters Near Support

In this Global Macro Update, Nik Bhatia breaks down one of the most chaotic weeks in markets this year, using price action to explain the forces driving volatility across treasuries, stocks, Bitcoin, and the dollar. He outlines how the recent collapse in 2-year yields to 3.5% confirms that the Fed's hiking cycle is over, with rate cuts still expected even amid a strong labor market. Nik zooms out on the steepening yield curve to show how forward inflation expectations are reentering the market, while bond volatility—measured by the MOVE index—spikes to levels that are now dragging down risk assets. He explains how reciprocal tariffs, a weaker dollar, and the administration's focus on restoring trade leverage all feed into tightening financial conditions. The episode wraps with a close look at key support levels across the S&P 500 and Bitcoin—and what their breakdown could mean for the Fed’s next move.

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Introduction to Global Market Volatility  

00:05:32 Understanding the Fed's Policy Rate and Market Expectations  

00:11:20 Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Changes on the Economy

00:17:06 Impact of Trump Victory on Inflation Expectations

00:22:41 Trump's Strategy for a Weaker Dollar

00:27:54 Impact of Tariffs on Currency Manipulation and Trade  

00:33:38 The Technology Cold War with China  

00:38:59 Stock Market Trends and Volatility  

00:44:35 Analyzing Bitcoin's Critical Green Trend Line

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.