House of Strauss HoS: Steve Kuhn of SportsPredict.com
Sep 15, 2025
In this discussion, Steve Kuhn, the founder of SportsPredict.com and a former hedge fund manager, shares his insights into NFL strategies. He explores the effect of new kickoff rules and how they impact decision-making, especially regarding 4th downs. Kuhn dives into nostalgic tactics like onside kicks and the psychology behind why coaches prefer predictable players. The conversation also highlights the unpredictability of football and the complex relationship between luck and skill in player performance.
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Buy Underdogs For Price, Not Certainty
- Buy underpriced underdogs early when the market is noisy and you lack strong conviction.
- Seek good prices rather than trying to predict deep team truths.
Kickoff Rule Exists To Cut Injuries
- The kickoff rule was changed primarily to reduce injuries from high-speed collisions.
- Starting players closer reduces acceleration and lowers the injury rate significantly.
Kickoff Rule Raises Go-For-It Value
- The new kickoff rule shifts expected value on fourth-down decisions because touchbacks now give better starting field position.
- A made field goal now nets roughly +1.5 expected points versus the old baseline, making going for it more attractive.