Unlimited Economic Stimulus and the Yield Curve Indicator

Unlimited Economic Stimulus: What Are Your Thoughts?

Join Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown for another all-new edition of What Are Your Thoughts? as they discuss: 

- US stocks just had their best monthly performance in 30 years 

- what was the catalyst? 

- Has Warren Buffett's magic touch faded away? Why Berkshire's annual shareholder "meeting" was so underwhelming. 

- Josh got the antibody test. Why wouldn't everyone? Maybe because it doesn't mean anything. 

- Is there any limit to how much money the Fed and Treasury can throw at the economy? Do we have any choice? 

- Michael Jordan talked about the downside of fame in this week's 'The Last Dance' - the press tears our idols down on Wall Street too. 

The Yield Curve Indicator is UNDEFEATED

Josh here - Okay, so now we're officially in recession. What happens next? How long will this go on for? 

Last fall we had Professor Campbell Harvey, partner and senior advisor to Research Affiliates, on The Compound to discuss the inverted yield curve, an economic indicator he had discovered in the 1980's. Cam explained that this indicator - when Treasury interest rates on shorter-term bonds rise above those being paid on longer-dated bonds - has been successful at predicting recessions 7 out of 7 times with zero false signals along the way. This recession means it's now 8 for 8! 

Join us for a discussion about the way the signal should be thought about now with the Fed's overnight rate back at zero. We also discuss whether or not the economy is bottoming, what has to happen for the recession to end, and why this environment is like nothing we've ever seen before in history.

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