Michael Oliver, a financial analyst from Momentum Structural Analysis, shares his insights on the impending shifts in financial markets. He warns of a major top in the US stock market and highlights the potential for significant disruptions in banking and Bitcoin. Oliver is particularly optimistic about silver, predicting it could soar to $60-$70 by year-end, as he sees a shift towards precious metals amid economic instability. He anticipates a prolonged bear market, drawing parallels to historical corrections.
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insights INSIGHT
U.S. Stock Bubble And Broadening Top
Michael Oliver sees US equities as a bubble with a broadening-top pattern indicating a major top may be forming.
Momentum metrics warn the January highs may fail and a prolonged bear market could follow.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Prepare For A Long Grinding Bear
Expect a grinding, multi-year bear rather than a one-week crash as the most probable outcome.
Prepare for a painful downtrend over two to three years instead of counting on a single crash event.
insights INSIGHT
Hidden Fragility In Banks And Payments
Several banking and payments names show exhausted quarterly momentum floors that have been used repeatedly.
Breaking those momentum floors in banks, Visa or MasterCard could trigger an unexpected headline-driven implosion.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Michael discusses his technical analysis of current market conditions, focusing on potential significant shifts in various financial markets. Oliver argues that the US stock market is approaching a major top, characterized by a "broadening top" pattern that suggests an impending decline. He believes the market's upside is not to be trusted, with technical momentum indicators showing weakness in major indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ. The current market represents a bubble, particularly in US markets, with an unprecedented 15-year bull run and a 19-20 fold increase in the NASDAQ 100. A key concern is the potential for market disruption in unexpected areas, such as banking, credit cards, and Bitcoin. Oliver suggests Bitcoin may be particularly vulnerable, with technical indicators showing similarities to previous market tops. He anticipates a potential implosion that could create significant financial shock waves. Regarding precious metals, Oliver is bullish on gold and especially silver. He predicts silver could reach $60-$70 by year-end, potentially outperforming gold dramatically. He sees this as part of a broader shift away from traditional financial systems, potentially leading to a new monetary reality. Oliver expects a prolonged bear market rather than a sudden crash, drawing parallels to historical market corrections. He anticipates widespread economic consequences, including potential changes to major institutions like the Federal Reserve. The dollar index is expected to continue declining, potentially dropping to 70 or lower. Commodities are another area of interest, with Oliver suggesting they're poised for a significant upward move. He believes the combination of these factors could create rapid, dramatic changes across financial markets, catching many investors off guard. The overarching theme is one of potential systemic transformation, where incremental changes suddenly erupt into major shifts, challenging existing economic assumptions and potentially reshaping financial landscapes in unexpected ways.
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