Expert on Yemen, Helen Lackner, discusses the politics of Houthis' attacks on Red Sea shipping, Yemen's history from British colonial Aden to the current civil war, and the complexity of the negotiations for a formal end to the war. It also highlights the origins and ideology of the Houthi movement, the US role in Yemen and the Al-Qaeda threat, and the British colonization of Aden.
The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are motivated by solidarity with Palestine and opposition to the US and Israel, signaling their ideological-based approach to target ships carrying goods to Israel.
The Houthi attacks have gained sympathy and attention across the Arab and Muslim world, positioning them as the only group taking action against Israel and impacting shipping routes to Israeli ports.
The US intervention in Yemen is primarily driven by counterterrorism efforts and concerns about al-Qaeda, but the extent of the threat posed by al-Qaeda has been questioned, suggesting ulterior motives for American involvement.
The evolving relationship between the Houthis and Iran has grown since 2015, with Iran providing strategic and technical support to enhance the Houthis' military capabilities while also sharing ideological opposition to the US and Israel.
Deep dives
The Houthi Attacks and Motivations
The podcast episode discusses the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and their motivations. The Houthis are primarily motivated by their solidarity with Palestine and their opposition to the US and Israel. Their attacks on ships carrying goods to Israel are in line with their ideological beliefs. The podcast also highlights the exaggerated perception of the Houthis as Iranian proxies, emphasizing that they have their own agency and ideas. The attacks have garnered sympathy and attention across the Arab and Muslim world, as the Houthis are seen as the only group taking action against Israel. The economic and geopolitical impact of the Houthi actions is assessed as having some significance in cutting down shipping to Israeli ports and influencing ship diversions.
US Decision to Strike Houthi Assets
The podcast delves into the US decision to strike Houthi assets and its objectives. The US intervention is primarily driven by its counterterrorism efforts and concerns about al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). However, the impact of AQAP has been questioned, with suggestions that the threat was exaggerated, serving as a pretext for American intervention. The US role in the broader Saudi-UAE coalition backing the war is explored, noting that its involvement is mainly focused on countering terrorism rather than having a fundamental economic interest. The effectiveness of US airstrikes in achieving their desired outcomes is also questioned, considering the historical record of interventions and their unintended consequences.
The Houthis and Iranian Support
The podcast discusses the evolving relationship between the Houthis and Iran throughout the civil war. Initially, the Houthis had limited contact with Iran, other than a shared ideological connection. However, their political and military alliance with Iran has grown since 2015. Iran provides the Houthis with strategic and technical support, enhancing their military capabilities. The ideological influence is seen through the introduction of Iranian religious practices and events into Yemen. The political alliance is driven by mutual opposition to the US and Israel. Although the Houthis are politically dependent, they maintain their own independence and pursue their own interests.
The Truce and Negotiations for Peace
The podcast covers the truce and the current state of negotiations for peace in Yemen. The truce initiated in April 2022 has significantly reduced military activities, with limited military engagement mainly between Yemeni factions. The truce also signaled a shift in focus from airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition to direct negotiations between the Saudis and the Houthis. The Saudis' main objective is to end the war and withdraw their involvement. Recent talks and visits by delegations from both sides have raised hopes for a peace agreement, but a final agreement has yet to be reached. The potential agreement includes provisions related to government staff salaries, lifting the blockade on Hodeidah ports, and expanding airport destinations. The podcast concludes with the complex dynamics surrounding the negotiations and the ongoing regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The Implications of Saudi Signing as Participants or Mediators
The podcast discusses the implications of the Saudi signing the agreement as participants or mediators. If they sign as participants, they would be open to accusations of war crimes for their past actions. Signing as mediators would avoid this problem.
The Status of Negotiations and Prospects for a Formal End to the Civil War
The podcast examines the current status of negotiations and the prospects for a formal end to the Civil War. It is unlikely that a formal agreement will be reached due to the deteriorating situation in Yemen. With the conflict intensifying and the involvement of the US, it is improbable that the Houthis would agree to sign any deal with the Saudis.
The Importance of Aden as a Key Node in the British Empire
The podcast explores the significance of Aden as a key node in the British Empire. Aden's natural port and its location along the route between Britain and India made it a vital transit point, especially after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869.
The Impact of Unification and the Political Order in Yemen
The podcast delves into the impact of unification on Yemen's political order. Unification led to a proliferation of political parties, with various groups vying for power. However, President Ali Abdullah Saleh managed to maintain control over the unified state, leading to tensions and conflicts with different factions.
Featuring Helen Lackner on the Houthis, the politics of their attacks on Red Sea shipping, and the long history of Yemen from British colonial Aden through the current civil war.
