Bloomberg Surveillance Surveillance: Peter Tchir's Favorite Hedge
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Oct 16, 2023 Peter Tchir's favorite hedge is calls on the treasury market. Steven Major observes evidence of capitulation in the markets. Julie Norman predicts the Israel-Hamas war will define the region's future. Erika Najarian discusses bank earnings. Doug Kass factors geopolitical risk into his market outlook.
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Narrative Shift
- Peter Tchir's narrative has shifted to focus on the Israel-Hamas conflict and its potential impact on markets.
- He believes the market is pricing in a localized conflict, with Israel securing its borders without major escalation.
Two-Front War Capacity
- Tchir believes the US can support two military conflicts but acknowledges underfunding in the military.
- Replenishing weapon systems will be crucial in the coming years.
Market Approach and Hedges
- Tchir recommends a range-bound trading approach for stocks and bonds.
- He favors call options on treasuries as a hedge against geopolitical escalation.