Wall Street Breakfast Crucial jobs report highlights short week
Aug 31, 2025
The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with payrolls increasing by 80,000. Insight into Broadcom's earnings sheds light on the AI sector's health. A recent appeals court ruling has declared most of Trump's tariffs illegal. Additionally, significant changes in COVID-19 booster shot administration are discussed. This week also highlights upcoming dividend dates, keeping income investors on their toes.
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Jobs Report Could Decide Fed Move
- Economists expect payrolls rose ~78,000 with unemployment up to 4.3% and hourly earnings +0.3% in August.
- A weak jobs print would likely cement a September Fed rate cut, while >150k jobs could derail it.
Labor Market Is Narrow And Fragile
- Labor demand shows tentative stabilization but payroll growth has sharply slowed and remains narrow outside health care and social services.
- Factors like a federal hiring freeze and tech-driven white-collar pressure will likely keep hiring subdued.
Use Payrolls Thresholds To Gauge Policy
- Watch payrolls closely: anything near flat or a decline could reopen talk of a larger Fed cut.
- Treat a payrolls rise north of 150,000 as the threshold to question the September cut probability.