Aaron Carter, Executive Director on the Global Collateral Finance Desk at CIBC Capital Markets, joins Ian to unpack significant shifts in Canada’s monetary policy. They dive into the Bank of Canada’s move toward a corridor system and its game-changing implications for CORRA. The conversation shifts to cash flow management strategies, including the complexities of utilizing the repo market. Aaron also sheds light on the upcoming tri-party repo system and its impact on liquidity management, promising a more dynamic interaction with monetary policy.
The Bank of Canada's adjustment to a corridor system aims to incentivize institutions to utilize excess cash and improve market liquidity.
Increased trading volumes following the deposit rate change suggest a strategic shift among institutions towards a more active cash management approach.
Deep dives
Deposit Rate Adjustment and Market Impact
The Bank of Canada recently reduced its deposit rate by five basis points below the target rate, catching many off guard. This adjustment was intended to enhance the velocity of cash within the financial system and address the concentration of settlement balances. The reduction creates an incentive for institutions to mobilize their excess cash rather than leaving it idle, as there is now a cost associated with keeping funds at the Bank. This move signals an acknowledgment of previously discussed issues regarding the distribution of reserves and the need for a more balanced system.
Operational Frictions and Market Dynamics
The podcast discusses how operational frictions within the banking system influence liquidity and cash flow management. As institutions hold larger settlement balances than needed, they often avoid taking action to manage their cash due to the associated risks and costs. The podcast emphasizes that without an incentive, institutions are disinclined to lend excess cash, leading to a stagnation in the market. The recent deposit rate adjustment seeks to provide these incentives, thereby promoting liquidity and enhancing market functioning.
Increased Trading Volumes and System Efficiency
Following the Bank of Canada's decision, trading volumes within the financial system noticeably increased, signaling a move towards healthier liquidity dynamics. Participants in the market are responding to the new incentive structures by actively seeking to put their excess cash back into circulation. The podcast notes that this increased activity reflects a strategic shift among institutions to avoid the penalty of leaving cash unutilized at the bank. As trading volumes rise, this suggests a more vibrant market atmosphere characterized by increased cash velocity and participation.
Forecasting the Future of Core Rates
The discussion also touches on expectations for core rates in the wake of recent adjustments and market behavior. It is suggested that as liquidity improves and institutions adapt to the new environment, the core spread may tighten and align closer to the target rate. Long-term forecasts indicate that core rates could settle at one to two basis points above target, depending on the actions of the Bank of Canada. The effectiveness of the Bank's tools, such as term repos and the management of overnight rates, will play a critical role in shaping future liquidity conditions.
In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward.
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