Why the Russians Need Georgia and the Caucasus || Peter Zeihan
Dec 11, 2024
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Recent protests in Georgia highlight the nation's growing discontent over abandoning EU membership. The discussion unpacks Georgia's strategic importance to Russia, exploring how a local oligarch has shaped its political landscape. Geopolitical tensions with Turkey and Iran also come into play, reflecting shifting dynamics in the Caucasus. Additionally, Europe is reassessing its military strategies to counter Russian influence, indicating a move towards more independent defense efforts in the region.
The massive protests in Georgia highlight the public's strong desire for EU membership and resistance against Russian dominance.
Georgia's strategic location and resources are crucial for Russian influence in the Caucasus, making its allegiance vital for regional stability.
Deep dives
Current Uprising in Georgia
The recent uprising in Georgia, triggered by the government’s decision to halt its bid for European Union membership, indicates significant public dissatisfaction. With over 100,000 people protesting against an election perceived as neither free nor fair, citizens are increasingly vocal about their desire to break free from Russian dominance. The abandonment of EU membership reflects a broader fear among Georgians that continued Russian influence prevents meaningful progress towards democracy and prosperity. The protests signal a strong yearning for autonomy and a closer relationship with the West, despite the risks involved.
Geopolitical Importance of Georgia
Georgia holds significant geopolitical importance for Russia due to its location and resources. Control over Georgia is strategically vital for Russia as it allows them to maintain influence in the Caucasus region and prevent other powers from gaining footholds. Unlike Armenia, which has limited agricultural capacity and is more mountainous, Georgia boasts valuable agricultural land and infrastructure critical for regional stability. The loss of Georgia's allegiance would threaten Russian influence over its surrounding territories, complicating their ability to manage neighboring groups like the Chechens.
Potential European Intervention
There is a growing possibility that European nations may take a more active role in supporting the Georgian protesters and countering Russian influence. As Europe becomes more militarily aware and recognizes the need for collaborative efforts, intervention in Georgia may become a low-risk opportunity with potentially high rewards. Financial support, intelligence sharing, or even covert operations could help align Georgia more closely with the West, shifting the balance of power in the region. If the Europeans initiate proactive measures, this could signal a transformative period not only for Georgia but also for European geopolitics.
Protesters have taken to the streets in Georgia after pro-Russian oligarch and head of the ruling Georgia Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced that Tbilisi would be ending its bid to join the EU.