Commercial Real Estate Investing From A-Z California Fires: Opportunities in Real Estate? Real Estate Outlook for 2025
Will there be real estate opportunities in the Palisades area of California after the fire? What is the current state of the real estate industry, and what is the outlook for 2025? Pike Oliver, real estate veteran in master planned communities, and co-author of Transforming the Irvine Ranch book, shares his insights.
How do you think that is impacting real estate professionals that are related to rebuilding in the area? Are people flying in from other states or cities to get that kind of business?
I do know that there have been some folks who are looking to potentially acquire sites that maybe people whose homes were burned, are not interested in reoccupying, and there's pluses and minuses associated with that. Some of the folks are coming in with low-ball offers and trying to take advantage of the distress. On the other hand, I heard of a lot that burned in the ballast eyes area and whistle for a million dollars the other day, so that doesn't sound like too much of a low ball offer. A lot of things are involved in real estate, there's the good side and the bad side, as far as opportunities, there will be opportunities to rebuild, but it's challenging because of all the individual ownership of the residential lots. Whether there are large-scale opportunities, that remains to be seen, and there's a lot of work to be done in clearing the sites, certifying them environmentally, and doing all of that, and that's just getting underway, and it's going to take some months to get that all squared away. There are several issues associated with fire insurance. We've seen a lot of concern about that. California is probably going to have to look at how it regulates that, perhaps a little more liberally as far as allowing for rates to essentially pay the true cost of providing the insurance.
What are some trends for the year coming from your newsletter? There is improved sentiment regarding potential stabilization of real estate and also some top markets to watch. What have you been keeping up with regarding what you think is coming up in 2025?
I always like to say that I have no high-definition crystal ball, all I know is what I read from people who are more expert at this sort of thing than I am. I think we're probably past the most challenging adjustments coming out of the COVID period. And there has been a lot of question about inflation and interest rates. I think one thing we have to always keep in mind is that what the Fed does fundamentally affects short term interest rates. Rates. Long term interest rates are kind of a different matter, although influenced. Just everything that's going on with policy. I wouldn't be looking to see a return to the very low interest rates that we had up until the pre-COVID period. I think that's behind us now.
The positive thing is we've had a few years of higher rates, although, by historical standards, in my career lifetime, not all that high. I think that the market of consumers now is going to be more accustomed to interest rates in the 6 7% realm, less put off by it, and people's lives change. Their families change. They have a need, and they're not going to wait forever to act upon that need if they can afford it.
Pike Oliver
pike@urbannexus.com