Under the Banyan Tree - What does a stronger dollar mean for Asian FX?
Sep 21, 2023
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Analyzing the effects of a stronger dollar on Asian currencies, pressures on the RMB and its influence on other currencies, the importance of the yen and its indirect impact on Asian currencies, and the effects of a stronger dollar on Asian FX markets and the increased use of Asian currencies.
A stronger US dollar poses challenges for Asian currencies, leading to depreciation and potential weaknesses in European currencies.
The performance of higher yielding Asian currencies, such as the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Philippine peso, may be impacted by trade deficits, potential inflation, and rising oil prices.
Deep dives
Impact of US Dollar Strength on Asian Currencies
The podcast discusses the impact of a stronger US dollar on currencies in Asia. The US dollar has been gaining momentum against other currencies due to elevated interest rates and expected future hikes. Asian currencies, being low yielding in nature, struggle to compete with the strong dollar. While some Asian currencies have already depreciated significantly, the podcast suggests that European currencies may experience similar weakness. Central banks in Asia have been resisting currency depreciation through various measures. The Chinese yuan's stabilization is seen as crucial for the region, as it influences other Asian currencies.
Higher Yielding Currencies in Asia and Their Challenges
The podcast highlights the performance of higher yielding currencies in Asia, namely the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Philippine peso. These currencies have depreciated less compared to other Asian currencies, but the podcast notes that their higher yield differentials against the US dollar may not be sufficient to offset risks such as trade deficits and potential inflation. The rise in oil prices further adds pressure on Asian economies, as most of them are net oil importers, which affects their currencies.
Currency Internationalization and Developments in Asian FX Markets
The podcast explores the concept of currency internationalization, particularly in the context of the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee. While China has made progress in using the yuan for international transactions, India is still in the early stages of regionalization. The increased use of Asian currencies in international transactions reduces demand for the US dollar and lowers FX hedging requirements for local corporates. The podcast concludes by highlighting the ongoing developments in Asian FX markets, including the interaction between exchange rates, interest rates, and the use of Asian currencies in global trade.