Friday Focus: Israel's pager attacks have changed the rules of war
Sep 20, 2024
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Join Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs, and Rudyard Griffiths, Chair of the Munk Debates, as they delve into the shifting landscape of warfare. They discuss Israel's innovative pager attacks on Hezbollah, highlighting the complexities of military responses and civilian safety. The duo debates Iran's influence over both Hamas and Hezbollah, questioning their autonomy. Additionally, they explore the implications of technology in warfare and how AI is transforming civilian infrastructure into potential battlefields.
Hezbollah's strategic decision-making is complicated by its reliance on Iranian support and the necessity to assert its credibility against Israel.
The use of advanced technology in warfare raises significant concerns about international law and the potential weaponization of civilian infrastructure.
Deep dives
Potential Escalation in Lebanon and Israel
The current military movements in Northern Israel suggest the possibility of an impending conflict with Hezbollah, highlighted by the redeployment of elite Israeli divisions and significant military assets to the border. Recent communications blackouts and military exercises signal preparations that typically precede an offensive. However, despite these preparations, an actual escalation has not occurred, leading to uncertainty about the immediate future of military engagement. The situation remains tense, with both sides engaging in aggressive acts, yet stopping short of full-scale war, keeping their options open while sending strong messages to each other.
Hezbollah's Dilemma and Its Regional Impacts
Hezbollah currently faces a challenging predicament, balancing between the pressure to assert dominance and the fear of provoking Israel into a much larger conflict. The group's autonomy in decision-making contrasts with its reliance on Iranian support, complicating its ability to operate independently. Hezbollah’s potential withdrawal to the Litani River would be perceived as a significant defeat, undermining its credibility in the eyes of its supporters. This ongoing tension risks not only the stability of Lebanon but also impacts regional dynamics, as the implications of any conflict stretch well beyond their borders.
The Broader Implications of Iranian Influence
The influence of Iran in the conflict is a vital factor, framing Hezbollah and Hamas as critical components of Iran's regional strategy against Israel. The dialogue indicates that while these groups operate with a degree of autonomy, their actions are nonetheless shaped by Iranian interests, particularly concerning deterrence against Israeli attacks. As Israel continues to face threats from heavily armed groups, the response to these provocations requires a careful calculation to avoid wider warfare. This complex relationship underscores the broader security challenges in the region, where conflicts are intricately connected to the actions and agendas of external powers like Iran.
Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates.
The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus.
Today's show is all about Israel's pager and walkie talkie attacks on Hezbollah members in Lebanon. Rudyard argues that you can't continuously fire rockets at civilian neighbourhoods in northern Israel without expecting a response. But Hezboallah is not Hamas: its army has a vast and sophisticated weapons arsenal that has the potential to overwhelm Israel's defense capabilities. Janice and Rudyard disagree over Iran's level of influence over Hamas and Hezbollah. Are they puppets of Tehran, or partners with similar objectives? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice discuss the long term global ramifications of using this type of advanced technology in warfare. How does international law apply? Both worry that in the age of AI, civilian infrastructure has become part of the battlefield and anybody with access to code can weaponise everything from our phones to our fridges.
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