Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, dives into the turbulent waters of the financial market, sharing insights on potential risks for the S&P 500. He discusses the growing concerns of a recession and how traders are bracing for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Purves believes the S&P could hit lows of 4,000 due to shifting market dynamics influenced by recent tariff policies. His analysis emphasizes the urgent need for strategies amidst rising economic uncertainties and a changing investment landscape.
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insights INSIGHT
Recession Risks Priced In
The market is pricing in recession risks rapidly.
Small caps' attempted bottoming has failed after President Trump's Rose Garden ceremony.
insights INSIGHT
Value Territory?
Ford's low P/E ratio of five suggests potential value territory.
However, earnings adjustments are needed before relying on P/E alone.
insights INSIGHT
Uncharted Waters
Current market volatility differs from past crises like COVID or the financial crisis.
Unlike previous events, the federal government's actions are the catalyst for the current instability.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 7th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses her note this morning on why full recession pricing could send the S&P to 4,200. The RBC team led by Calvasina writes in note that the concern of many financial market participants seemed to rapidly swing from stagflation to recession on Thursday and Friday. They add that the value/growth ratio within the Russell 1000 has gotten close to the 2024 lows, “making us wonder whether that trade may soon get to a potential inflection point.” 2) Michael Purves, CEO at Tallbacken Capital Advisors, discusses his recent note "The Express Train to 4,800" and why he believes the S&P could fall as low as 4,000. Traders have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with markets pricing 125 basis points of easing by year end. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the US economy to fall into a recession this year, with the Fed cutting interest rates in response. 3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, talks about tariff policy, where the GOP stands on tax cuts, and how policy could change in the coming days and months. President Trump's tariff hikes increase the urgency of the Republican tax-cut package, but threaten to undermine its boost to business and consumer confidence. The tariffs could tip the economy into a downward spiral, making it tough for tax cuts and deregulation to reverse, and may lead to a recession this year. 4) Keith Lerner, Co-CIO at Truist, talks about investors being on the defensive as stocks have more room to decline. As President Trump remains defiant on tariffs, markets were set for another tough week, with US equity futures plunging Sunday, following a 10% drop in the underlying index in two days, and economists predicting a recession this year. 5) Sonali Basak, Wall Street reporter with Bloomberg News, on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and the JPMorgan annual shareholder letter. Dimon urged a quick resolution to the uncertainties sparked by President Donald Trump's tariffs, warning against a potentially "disastrous" fragmentation of America's long-term economic alliances.
Bloomberg Surveillance