Economist Podcasts America's next top-job model: our election forecast
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Jun 12, 2024 Dan Rosenheck, Data editor at The Economist, dives into the latest statistical forecasts for the upcoming US presidential election, hinting at Donald Trump's potential second term. They also discuss exciting advancements in malaria vaccines, shedding light on ongoing public health struggles. Additionally, the conversation explores the rise of 'tradwives' on TikTok, revealing a fascinating cultural trend that embraces traditional gender roles. It’s a blend of politics, health, and societal shifts, sure to spark intrigue!
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Trump's Projected Win
- Donald Trump has a 60% chance of winning the presidency, according to The Economist's model.
- This is based on polls and fundamentals, like the economy and presidential approval.
How the Model Works
- The Economist's model uses polls and fundamentals.
- Fundamentals include the economy, approval ratings, time in office, and state voting history.
Factors Favoring Trump
- Joe Biden’s unpopularity and Trump's gains among less politically engaged voters help Trump.
- Some voters blame Biden for Roe v. Wade's reversal despite Trump nominees' role.