Bloomberg Talks Chief Economist at Wolfe Research Stephanie Roth Talks November US CPI Report
Dec 18, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, delves into the surprising November US CPI report. She highlights significant sampling errors and explains how holiday discounts may have skewed the data. Roth reassures listeners that inflation isn’t rising sharply but rather stabilizing. She shares insights on labor market resilience and anticipates a Fed pause in interest rate changes. Additionally, she touches on the impact of recent government shutdowns on data collection and offers a unique perspective on future Fed appointments.
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November CPI Likely Understates Inflation
- The November CPI print contains large sampling errors and timing issues that likely made inflation look artificially weak.
- Stephanie Roth expects a rebound in December as seasonality and data collection oddities normalize.
Holiday Discounts Stayed Normal
- Holiday discounting in November appears to have been normal despite concerns tariffs would prevent discounts.
- Survey indicators showed a typical holiday discounting year, reducing the chance tariffs stopped retailers from cutting prices.
Expect A Near-Term Bounce And Fed Pause
- Inflation should bounce back in the next few prints and the Fed is likely to stay on hold early next year.
- Roth cautions against treating the November print as clear evidence of sustained disinflation.